Hurricane Force Wind Warning 1, NWS Medford, OR

341 
WHUS76 KMFR 112250
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
250 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...A STRONG FRONT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...

.A STRONG FRONT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...VERY STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY SEAS WILL ABATE RAPIDLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE TUESDAY.
NEITHER SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE ONE NOW MOVING
ONSHORE.

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/O.NEW.KMFR.SI.Y.0144.141212T0300Z-141212T0600Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SW.Y.0144.141212T0600Z-141214T0000Z/
WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
250 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST
   THIS AFTERNOON...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
   EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM
   PST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS NOW IN EFFECT FROM
   10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY. A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
PST THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS: SOUTH STORM FORCE 45 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS OF 65 TO 70 KT.
  WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
  TO WEST 10 TO 15 KT LATE TONIGHT.

* SEAS: HEAVY WEST SWELL AND STRONG SOUTHERLY CHOP ARE PRODUCING
  COMBINED SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
  EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT WEST SWELL OF 12 TO 13 FEET AT 15
  SECONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 10
  FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* IMPACTS: VERY STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY AND STEEP SEAS WILL
  AFFECT ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL VESSELS ARE STRONGLY
  RECOMMENDED TO REMAIN IN SAFE HARBOR FOR THE DURATION OF THESE
  HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/Z67H

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. ALL VESSELS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR
TAKE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES WILL
BE STEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE A POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO
33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

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/O.NEW.KMFR.SI.Y.0144.141212T0300Z-141212T0600Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SW.Y.0144.141212T0600Z-141214T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM-
250 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST
   THIS AFTERNOON...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
   EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM
   PST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS NOW IN EFFECT FROM
   10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY. A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
PST THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS: SOUTH STORM FORCE 45 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS OF 65 TO 70 KT.
  WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10
  TO 15 KT LATE TONIGHT.

* SEAS: HEAVY WEST SWELL AND STRONG SOUTHERLY CHOP ARE PRODUCING
  COMBINED SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
  EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT WEST SWELL OF 12 TO 13 FEET AT 15
  SECONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 10
  FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* IMPACTS: VERY STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY AND STEEP SEAS WILL
  AFFECT ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL VESSELS ARE STRONGLY
  RECOMMENDED TO REMAIN IN SAFE HARBOR FOR THE DURATION OF THESE
  HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. ALL VESSELS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR
TAKE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED
THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES WILL
BE STEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE A POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO
33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

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/O.NEW.KMFR.SI.Y.0144.141212T0300Z-141212T0600Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SW.Y.0144.141212T0600Z-141214T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM-
250 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
   EVENING...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
   AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM
   PST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS NOW IN EFFECT FROM
   10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY. A STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON. A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING. 

* WINDS: SOUTH STORM FORCE 45 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. WINDS
  WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
  KT LATE TONIGHT.

* SEAS: HEAVY WEST SWELL AND STRONG SOUTHERLY CHOP ARE PRODUCING
  COMBINED SEAS OF 20 TO 25 FEET. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
  THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT WEST SWELL OF 12 TO 13 FEET AT 15
  SECONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 10
  FEET SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS: VERY STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY AND STEEP SEAS WILL
  AFFECT ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL VESSELS ARE STRONGLY
  RECOMMENDED TO REMAIN IN SAFE HARBOR FOR THE DURATION OF THESE
  HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL
VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES WILL
BE STEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE A POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO
33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

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/O.NEW.KMFR.SI.Y.0144.141212T0300Z-141212T0600Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SW.Y.0144.141212T0600Z-141214T0000Z/
WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
250 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
   EVENING...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
   AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM
   PST THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS NOW IN EFFECT FROM
   10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY. A STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON. A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING. 

* WINDS: SOUTH STORM FORCE 45 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. WINDS
  WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
  10 TO 15 KT LATE TONIGHT.

* SEAS: HEAVY WEST SWELL AND STRONG SOUTHERLY CHOP ARE PRODUCING
  COMBINED SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
  EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT WEST SWELL OF 12 TO 13 FEET AT 15
  SECONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 10
  FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* IMPACTS: VERY STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY AND STEEP SEAS WILL
  AFFECT ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL VESSELS ARE STRONGLY
  RECOMMENDED TO REMAIN IN SAFE HARBOR FOR THE DURATION OF THESE
  HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL
VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES WILL
BE STEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE A POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO
33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY 140 MILES WEST OF CAPE BLANCO HAS A
CONFIRMED CENTRAL PRESSURE BELOW 980 MB PER A 15Z SHIP REPORT 60
MILES WEST OF BROOKINGS. THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
ESPECIALLY FOR IT'S LOCATION AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST, IS LIKELY
AT OR NEAR IT'S LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE, NEAR 975MB. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS LIKELY BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AFTER 21Z AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AFTER 00Z.

INLAND, PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE LIKELY REACHED THEIR PEAK ON THE
WEST SIDE, BUT MAXIMUM WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK BETWEEN
18Z AND 21Z ACROSS THE AREA, LAST FURTHEST EAST ACROSS MODOC AND
LAKE COUNTIES. PEAK WINDS IN THE ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS, THUS
FAR, THIS MORNING, HAVE BEEN IN THE 50 TO 70 MPH RANGE WITH
NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES REPORTED IN THE ASHLAND, MEDFORD, GRANTS
PASS, AND ROSEBURG AREAS. IN THE MOUNTAINS SQUAW PEAK REPORTED A
GUST TO 117 MPH EARLIER THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE
TOTALS, THUS FAR. MOUNT SHASTA CITY HAS RECEIVED 4 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. UP ON THE VOLCANO, AT THE AVALANCHE
CENTER'S OLD SKI BOWL SENSOR, 17.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAS FALLEN.
SNOW LEVELS MEANDERED BETWEEN ABOUT 6000 AND 7000 FEET OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS, WITH MOUNT ASHLAND REPORTING 3-5 INCHES THIS
MORNING.

IN SHORT, ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE BY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT. NO UPDATES NEEDED, THUS
FAR, THIS MORNING. WE'LL BE MAKING UPDATES THROUGH DAY AS
THE SITUATION WARRANTS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...WINDS ARE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE COAST. MODERATE
TO STRONG WINDS ARE GOING TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY, WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED SHEAR PROBLEMATIC WEST OF THE
CASCADES. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR WIND SPEED SHEAR AT KLAMATH
FALLS, BUT ONLY BECAUSE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THERE WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO NEGATE MEETING CRITERIA. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED, BUT LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN. TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS
EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS.  WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING, BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. -BPN/PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014...WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE, THEN MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORM FORCE WINDS, WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.

MEANWHILE...HEAVY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY CHOP TO PRODUCE VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 25 FEET,
WITH BREAKING WAVES OF OVER 30 FEET EXPECTED NEAR SHORE,
SHOALS, AND OTHER SHALLOW WATER AREAS.

THIS WILL BE A VERY STRONG STORM. ALL MARITIME AND COASTAL INTERESTS
SHOULD TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS NECESSARY TO PRESERVE LIFE AND
PROPERTY...AS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO UNSECURED AND
EXPOSED EQUIPMENT AND INFRASTRUCTURE. IT IS STRONGLY RECOMMENDED
THAT ALL VESSELS REMAIN IN SAFE HARBOR UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS
EVENING.

BEYOND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, REMAINING ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.  EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
SEAS AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LONG PERIOD SWELL TO
RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES
OFF THE OREGON CALIFORNIA COAST BORDER. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST THIS MORNING AND
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 975 TO 980 MB AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COAST TODAY. IT WILL BRING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS WELL AS STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL JETS INTO THE AREA...RESULTING
IN VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND INLAND INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS, INCLUDING THE SHASTA AND
ROGUE VALLEYS. OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO STORM FORCE IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH AREAS
OF HIGH WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND.

CURRENT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THE LOW AND SHOW THIS LOW APPROACHING WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COAST,
CENTERED OFF CAPE BLANCO BY LATE THIS MORNING. THEN SHIFTING
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THE
NAM REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A COMBINATION OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF AS WELL THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMW AND RAP MODELS. THESE
MODELS BRING A SOUTH 70 TO 80 KT 925 MB JET ALONG THE COAST WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH WINDS TO DEVELOP IN
COASTAL AREAS, INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, THEN SPREADING ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PEAK
WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 55 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 80 MPH OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST.

INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL JET OF AROUND 80 KT MOVES OVER THIS
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY, OVER THE
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS, AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE VERY STRONG, AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING,
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 60 TO 70 MPH AND LOCALLY HIGHER. ALTHOUGH
THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GREATEST IMPACTS,
EXPECT MOST THE AREA TO SEE VERY GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WIND WARNINGS
AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THIS LOW PASSAGE. THIS MAY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IMPACTS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WILDFIRE BURN SCARS IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY IN CURRY COUNTY. THIS RAIN
COMBINED WITH RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAYS STORM, MAY ALLOW FOR SMALL
STREAM OR LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING ALONG THE COAST. IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AND MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE
WILDFIRE BURN SCAR AREAS.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE
AREA AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL AND SHOWERY AIR MASS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FROM 7000 FEET THIS MORNING TO
AROUND 6000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE LOW. THEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INLAND TONIGHT
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER DOWN TO 5000 FT...WITH SNOW LEVELS OF
AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT ON FRIDAY. THESE LOWER SNOW LEVELS
COMBINED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY  WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UPPER MOUNTAINS, ABOVE 7000
FT ELEVATION, WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. THEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA, EXPECT THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND INLAND TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES.

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM PST WED DEC 10 2014/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON FRIDAY A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4500-5000 FEET. COULD SEE UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS AS A SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK SOUTH TO NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST
OREGON WITH POTENTIAL HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER LAKE COUNTY. COULD NEED
TO BUMP TOTALS THERE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY THINGS WILL SETTLE DOWN CONSIDERABLY WITH SOME MORNING
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING IN AREAS UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING. BOTH THE
EURO AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE BRINGING IN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TO THE
COAST LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING
MAINLY ACROSS THE COAST AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD
TRAVERSE THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TARGET THE
NORTHWEST WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF EVENTS AT
THIS POINT. SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A
COUPLE BOUTS OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT THE COAST MONDAY-TUESDAY.
STAVISH

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ029>031-624-625.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ021>024-615-616-618-619.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ023-025-616-617-620-623.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ026-622.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CAZ083>085-284-285.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     CAZ080-081-280-281.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ310.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ310.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ370-376.

BTL/BTL/BTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
737 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 N MEDFORD             42.37N 122.85W
12/11/2014                   JACKSON            OR   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORTED NUMEROUS FENCES AND BRANCHES DOWN

&&

MND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
758 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSW ELKTON            43.58N 123.60W
12/11/2014  M1.49 INCH       DOUGLAS            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL FROM 9 PM THROUGH 7:30 AM
            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 10 HOURS 30 MINUTES.
            OBSERVER LOCATION 6 MILES SOUTH OF ELKTON.

&&

MND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
812 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S CAVE JUNCTION       42.16N 123.64W
12/11/2014  M1.22 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 12 HOURS. OBSERVER
            LOCATION BEHIND DAVES OUTDOOR.

&&

MND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
855 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 12 S RUCH               42.07N 123.02W
12/11/2014  M117 MPH         JACKSON            OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION SQUAW PEAK /SQFO3/

0147 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SSE PORT ORFORD       42.69N 124.45W
12/10/2014  M85 MPH          CURRY              OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 5 SE PORT ORFORD /ODT58/

0139 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 12 S RUCH               42.07N 123.02W
12/10/2014  M84 MPH          JACKSON            OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION SQUAW PEAK /SQFO3/

0800 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 12 NNW SPRAGUE RIVER    42.62N 121.55W
12/11/2014  M76 MPH          KLAMATH            OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION CALIMUS RIVER /CLFO3/

0611 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 ESE SUTHERLIN         43.36N 123.19W
12/11/2014  M75 MPH          DOUGLAS            OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION NORTH BANK RAWS /NBKO3/

0303 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE ASHLAND           42.19N 122.69W
12/11/2014  M74 MPH          JACKSON            OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 1 ENE ASHLAND /DW6803/

0213 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE GOLD BEACH        42.40N 124.38W
12/10/2014  M74 MPH          CURRY              OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FLYNN PRAIRIE RAWS /FPRO3/

0521 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 N BROOKINGS           42.12N 124.30W
12/11/2014  M68 MPH          CURRY              OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION RED MOUND RAWS /RMFO3/

0835 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 11 SSE SITKUM           43.00N 123.78W
12/11/2014  M68 MPH          COOS               OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION SIGNAL TREE RAWS /TRFO3/

0448 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE MONTAGUE           41.78N 122.47W
12/11/2014  M67 MPH          SISKIYOU           CA   AWOS

            AWOS STATION MONTAGUE 5 NE /SIY/

0119 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST GOLD BEACH              42.41N 124.42W
12/10/2014  M66 MPH          CURRY              OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION GOLD BEACH /K4S1/

0639 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 18 NE HARBOR            42.24N 124.04W
12/11/2014  M65 MPH          CURRY              OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION QUAIL PRAIRIE #2 RAWS
            /QPFO3/

0551 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 16 ESE SOMES BAR        41.27N 123.19W
12/11/2014  M65 MPH          SISKIYOU           CA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION BLUE RIDGE /BUGC1/

1113 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 9 SSW MYRTLE POINT      42.95N 124.22W
12/10/2014  M65 MPH          COOS               OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION LONG PRAIRIE RAWS /LGPO3/

0745 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 S GALICE              42.45N 123.61W
12/11/2014  M63 MPH          JOSEPHINE          OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 8 S GALICE /OMFO3/

0139 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 18 NE HARBOR            42.24N 124.04W
12/10/2014  M61 MPH          CURRY              OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION QUAIL PRAIRIE #2 RAWS
            /QPFO3/

0100 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW HARBOR             42.05N 124.27W
12/10/2014  E60 MPH          CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GUSTS OF 60MPH AT BROOKINGS HARBOR MEASURED
            BY TRAINED SPOTTER

0448 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SE GAZELLE            41.48N 122.45W
12/11/2014  M59 MPH          SISKIYOU           CA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION WEED /WEEC1/

1150 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 16 WNW PORT ORFORD      42.80N 124.80W
12/10/2014  M58 MPH          PZZ356             OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 16 W PORT ORFORD /46015/

&&

STAVISH
NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
859 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S MOUNT SHASTA        41.29N 122.31W
12/11/2014  M5.10 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS. OBSERVER
            LOCATION 1 MILE SOUTH OF TOWN.

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW ETNA              41.44N 122.91W
12/11/2014  M1.80 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS. OBSERVER
            LOCATION 2 MI SW OF ETNA.

0901 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE MURPHY            42.36N 123.29W
12/11/2014  M1.27 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS. OBSERVER
            LOCATION GRANTS PASS.

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM