Alert archive / Oregon / High Wind Warnings in 2014
High Wind Warning 1, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this high wind warning at Jan 10, 2014, 4:13 AM PST for 5 counties in Oregon; Modoc County, California. It took effect at Jan 10, 2014, 7:00 PM PST. It was in force for 27 hr. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 10, 2014, 4:13 AM PST (12:13 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jan 10, 2014, 7:00 PM PST
- Expired
- Jan 11, 2014, 9:59 PM PST
- In force
- 27 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
Counties Modoc County, CA, Coos County, OR, Curry County, OR, Douglas County, OR, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 8:30 AM PST | NON-TSTM WND GST 65 | 1 Nnw Fort Bidwell, CA | A MESONET STATION IN FT BIDWELL REPORTED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 65 MPH. |
| Jan 11, 5:11 PM PST | HEAVY RAIN 1.08 | 7 Ese Coos Bay, OR | 8PM-8PM |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 48 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 590 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 70 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 127 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 205 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
086 WWUS76 KMFR 101213 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 413 AM PST FRI JAN 10 2014 ...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING EAST OF THE CASCADES... ...A STRONG STORM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST AND EAST SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... .A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. CAZ085-ORZ030-031-110000- /O.UPG.KMFR.HW.A.0001.140111T0900Z-140112T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.HW.W.0001.140111T0900Z-140112T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-140110T1800Z/ MODOC COUNTY- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY- 413 AM PST FRI JAN 10 2014 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 T0 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * TIMING...MODERATE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE THIS MORNING THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...STRENGTHEN SATURDAY MORNING... PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: SUMMER LAKE...SILVER LAKE AND PAISLEY. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 31 AND PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 395 COULD BECOME DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE BLOWING DEBRIS...AND COULD RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND WEAKER STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. && $$ ORZ021-022-110000- /O.UPG.KMFR.HW.A.0001.140111T0300Z-140111T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.HW.W.0001.140111T0300Z-140111T1500Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT ORFORD...BROOKINGS...HARBOR 413 AM PST FRI JAN 10 2014 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST SATURDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED. * WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 75 MPH AT HEADLANDS. * TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...PEAK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY SATURDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: PORT ORFORD...BROOKINGS...HARBOR. * IMPACTS...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 101. TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 101 COULD BECOME DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE BLOWING DEBRIS...AND MAY RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND WEAKER STRUCTURES. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. && $$ DW
6 follow-up statements
707 WWUS76 KMFR 101757 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 957 AM PST FRI JAN 10 2014 ...A STRONG STORM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST AND EAST SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... .A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. CAZ085-ORZ030-031-110200- /O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-140110T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0001.140111T0900Z-140112T0300Z/ MODOC COUNTY- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY- 957 AM PST FRI JAN 10 2014 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM PST THIS MORNING... THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM PST THIS MORNING. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 T0 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * TIMING...MODERATE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...STRENGTHEN SATURDAY MORNING... PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: SUMMER LAKE...SILVER LAKE AND PAISLEY. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 31 AND PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 395 COULD BECOME DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE BLOWING DEBRIS... AND COULD RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND WEAKER STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. && $$ ORZ021-022-110200- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0001.140111T0300Z-140111T1500Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT ORFORD...BROOKINGS...HARBOR 957 AM PST FRI JAN 10 2014 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST SATURDAY... A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST SATURDAY. * WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 75 MPH AT HEADLANDS. * TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...PEAK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY SATURDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: PORT ORFORD...BROOKINGS...HARBOR. * IMPACTS...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 101. TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 101 COULD BECOME DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE BLOWING DEBRIS...AND MAY RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND WEAKER STRUCTURES. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. && $$ SK
414 WWUS76 KMFR 102318 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 318 PM PST FRI JAN 10 2014 CAZ085-ORZ030-031-111130- /O.NEW.KMFR.WI.Y.0003.140111T1500Z-140112T0600Z/ /O.EXT.KMFR.HW.W.0001.140111T0900Z-140112T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLY...CRESCENT...LAKEVIEW 318 PM PST FRI JAN 10 2014 ...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY. THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 T0 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS COULD PEAK AS HIGH AS 75 MPH NEAR SUMMER LAKE. * TIMING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...STRENGTHEN SATURDAY MORNING...PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: SUMMER LAKE...SILVER LAKE AND PAISLEY. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 31 AND PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 395 COULD BECOME DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY TO HIGH- PROFILE VEHICLES. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE BLOWING DEBRIS...AND COULD RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND WEAKER STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. && $$ ORZ021-022-111130- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0001.140111T0300Z-140111T1500Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT ORFORD...BROOKINGS...HARBOR 318 PM PST FRI JAN 10 2014 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST SATURDAY... A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST SATURDAY. * WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 75 MPH AT HEADLANDS. * TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...PEAK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY SATURDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: PORT ORFORD...BROOKINGS...HARBOR...BANDON. * IMPACTS...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 101. TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 101 COULD BECOME DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE BLOWING DEBRIS...AND MAY RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND WEAKER STRUCTURES. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. && $$ CAZ081-111130- /O.NEW.KMFR.WI.Y.0003.140111T0900Z-140111T1800Z/ CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- 318 PM PST FRI JAN 10 2014 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...PEAK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND DIMINISH SOME BUT REMAIN GUSTY AND FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: WEED. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ALONG INTERSTATE 5...ESPECIALLY NEAR WEED. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ ORZ029-111130- /O.NEW.KMFR.WI.Y.0003.140111T1500Z-140112T0600Z/ KLAMATH BASIN- 318 PM PST FRI JAN 10 2014 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PEAKING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: LAKEVIEW...BLY. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ALONG HIGHWAYS 140...31...AND 395. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$
630 WWUS76 KMFR 111157 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 357 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014 CAZ085-ORZ030-031-120000- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140112T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0003.140111T1500Z-140112T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLY...CRESCENT...LAKEVIEW 357 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 T0 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AS HIGH AS 75 MPH NEAR SUMMER LAKE. * TIMING...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO A PEAK THAT COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AROUND 9 AM PST THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN THE LATE MORNING BEFORE BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO A SECONDARY PEAK THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: SUMMER LAKE...SILVER LAKE AND PAISLEY. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 31 AND PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 395 COULD BECOME DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY TO HIGH- PROFILE VEHICLES. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE BLOWING DEBRIS...AND COULD RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND WEAKER STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. && $$ ORZ021-022-111500- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140111T1500Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT ORFORD...BROOKINGS...HARBOR 357 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING... A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 75 MPH AT HEADLANDS. * TIMING...WINDS ARE NOW NEAR THEIR PEAK AND WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG UNTIL AROUND 7 AM PST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 7 AM PST THEN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO A WEAKER SECONDARY PEAK WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH AT HEADLANDS THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: PORT ORFORD...BROOKINGS...HARBOR...BANDON. * IMPACTS...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 101. TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 101 COULD BECOME DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE BLOWING DEBRIS...AND MAY RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND WEAKER STRUCTURES. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. && $$ CAZ081-111800- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140111T1800Z/ CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- 357 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A PEAK AROUND 8 AM PST THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH SOME BUT REMAIN GUSTY AND FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: WEED. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ALONG INTERSTATE 5...ESPECIALLY NEAR WEED. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ ORZ029-120000- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0003.140111T1500Z-140112T0600Z/ KLAMATH BASIN- 357 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING...PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN STRONG THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: LAKEVIEW...BLY. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ALONG HIGHWAYS 140...31...AND 395. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ DW
618 WWUS76 KMFR 111651 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 851 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014 CAZ081-111800- /O.CAN.KMFR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140111T1800Z/ CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- 851 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. $$ CAZ085-ORZ030-031-120100- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140112T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140112T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLY...CRESCENT...LAKEVIEW 851 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 T0 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AS HIGH AS 75 MPH NEAR SUMMER LAKE. * TIMING...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO A PEAK THAT COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING... THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN THE LATE MORNING BEFORE BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO A SECONDARY PEAK THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: SUMMER LAKE...SILVER LAKE AND PAISLEY. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 31 AND PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 395 COULD BECOME DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY TO HIGH- PROFILE VEHICLES. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE BLOWING DEBRIS... AND COULD RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND WEAKER STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. && $$ ORZ029-120100- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140112T0600Z/ KLAMATH BASIN- 851 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING...PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN STRONG THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: LAKEVIEW...BLY. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ALONG HIGHWAYS 140...31...AND 395. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ SK
339 WWUS76 KMFR 112214 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 214 PM PST SAT JAN 11 2014 CAZ085-ORZ030-031-120600- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140112T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140112T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLY...CRESCENT...LAKEVIEW 214 PM PST SAT JAN 11 2014 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 T0 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AS HIGH AS 75 MPH NEAR SUMMER LAKE. * WINDS AND SNOW: WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS IN THE FREMONT NATIONAL FOREST...INCLUDING YAMSEY MOUNTAIN...WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...RESULTING IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * TIMING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. * WARNING LOCATIONS INCLUDE: SUMMER LAKE...SILVER LAKE AND PAISLEY. * ADVISORY LOCATIONS INCLUDE: LAKEVIEW...BLY. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 31 AND PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 395 COULD BECOME DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY TO HIGH- PROFILE VEHICLES. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE BLOWING DEBRIS... AND COULD RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND WEAKER STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. && $$ ORZ029-120600- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140112T0600Z/ KLAMATH BASIN- 214 PM PST SAT JAN 11 2014 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...WIND SPEEDS WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN STRONG THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KLAMATH FALLS. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ALONG HIGHWAY 140. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ SK
441 WWUS76 KMFR 120559 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 959 PM PST SAT JAN 11 2014 CAZ085-ORZ030-031-120700- /O.CAN.KMFR.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140112T0600Z/ /O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140112T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLY...CRESCENT...LAKEVIEW 959 PM PST SAT JAN 11 2014 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 $$ ORZ029-120700- /O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140112T0600Z/ KLAMATH BASIN- 959 PM PST SAT JAN 11 2014 ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this high wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind warning went out at Jan 9, 10:16 PM PST, 5 hours 57 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 9, 10:16 PM PST, 5 hours 57 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1016 PM PST THU JAN 9 2014
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE
.UPDATE...
A COSMETIC UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE MARINE FORECAST. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WIND AREA WAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE COAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING PER BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND THE RAPID UPDATE CYCLE 13
KILOMETER GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY, COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED BY A COUPLE OF FEET FOR TONIGHT BASE ON THE SAME
REASONING. THIS DID NOT LEAD TO ANY HEADLINE CHANGES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING IS FOCUSING
PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST SIDE, PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST AND
DOUGLAS COUNTY. BURNT RIDGE AT 2955 FEET IN CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY
HAS GOTTEN THE MOST RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH JUST UNDER AN
INCH RECORDED. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE WILL MOST LIKELY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. SOME GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THE LATEST NAM12, DOES
BOOST AMOUNTS OVER DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY, THOUGH. AT THIS POINT THE GOING LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT FORECAST LOOKS BEST, AS THE NEW 00Z GFS40
HAS NOT TRENDED TOWARD THE WETTER NAM12 SOLUTION. WE WILL NEED TO
SEE HOW THE ECMWF TRENDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO BY
MORNING. FOR THOSE WONDERING ABOUT MOUNTAIN SNOW, AMOUNTS FROM
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND 6
INCHES AT MOUNT ASHLAND, BUT A MUCH HEFTIER 1 TO 2 FEET AT CRATER
LAKE NATIONAL PARK.
OF NOTE, THE GFS 00Z RUN NOW SHOWS AN EXTENDED WEST-EAST ORIENTED
PACIFIC JET STREAM REACHING THE WEST COAST ON DAY 9/JANUARY 19TH.
WHILE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT PREMATURE, IT IS WORTH WATCHING, AS THE
NAEFS IS ON BOARD WITH IT. IF IT COMES TO PASS THIS WOULD LIKELY
BE THE LONGER LIVED STORM ONSLAUGHT FOR WHICH MANY OF US HAVE
BEEN WAITING. BTL
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 10/06Z TAFS
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE NEAR TOTAL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TURBULENCE MAY CONTINUE
TO BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AS A
STRONG JET REMAINS OVERHEAD, THEN SHOULD EASE UP FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA, EXPECT A MIX OF PRIMARILY VALLEY
IFR ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SIDE AND AREAS OF MVFR EAST SIDE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OREGON. SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
MEDFORD/ROGUE VALLEY AREA. CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO A MIX OF
MVFR/VFR FRIDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE. THE NEXT IMPACT COMES
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST, THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EAST SIDE WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
NEAR KRBG/KMFR DUE TO RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. BTL/PETRUCELLI
&&
.MARINE...WIND WAVES COMBINED WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL WILL
CREATE CHAOTIC HAZARDOUS SEAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WESTERLY SWELL
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER...FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GALES AND VERY STEEP DANGEROUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH JUST ENOUGH ONSHORE
COMPONENT FOR WINDS TO GET CLOSE TO STORM FORCE....BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH AND WILL KEEP STRONG GALES. EXTREMELY LARGE SWELLS BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH SEAS POTENTIALLY REACHING 27 TO 30 FT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUSPECT THE THE SWAN OUTPUT AND WAVE WATCH
BULLETIN BRING THE SWELL HEIGHT DOWN TOO QUICK SUNDAY BECAUSE THE
DYNAMIC FETCH SHOULD KEEP SWELLS FROM COMING DOWN TOO QUICKLY. THE
ENP OUTPUT SHOWS HIGHER SWELLS SUNDAY AND A MORE GRADUAL DECREASE IN
SWELL HEIGHT. SO WE'LL BE LEANING TOWARDS THE HIGHER VALUES.
SPILDE/PETRUCELLI
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM PST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...09/12Z NAM/GFS IN.
A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIDGING WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
MEDFORD CWA TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND SPOTTIER COVERAGE EAST OF
THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE FROM 3500 FEET TO AROUND 6000
FEET THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GET GUSTY EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIPITATION WON'T CUT OFF COMPLETELY TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL
DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE STRONGLY. FRIDAY WILL BE
WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE CASCADES.
THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...AND THIS WILL OPEN THE STORM DOOR ONCE AGAIN...AND A
STRONG STORM WILL OBLIGE...MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS STORM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN SEVERAL WAYS...STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY SURF...AND HEAVY RAINS. FIRST UP...THE WINDS. AT
THIS TIME A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND MOST OF
THE EAST SIDE. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS WITH A
COASTAL JET DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY
OVER HEADLANDS AND OTHER EXPOSED AREAS. GRADIENTS AND 700 MB WINDS
ALSO SUPPORT HIGH WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA WHICH MAY SEE GUSTS IN THE 70-75 MPH RANGE.
THE SHASTA VALLEY IS ALSO A CONCERN...BUT WINDS THERE ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL SINCE 700MB WINDS ARE MORE WESTERLY
THAN OPTIMAL. GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN THERE...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY COME INTO PLAY. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE TOO HIGH FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS HEAVY SURF. A HEAVY SURF WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE COAST. THE WAVEWATCH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
HIGHER WITH A VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL MOVING IN SATURDAY. THE LATEST
RUN HAS A WESTERLY SWELL PEAKING AT 28 FEET AT 17 SECONDS SATURDAY
EVENING...AND THIS TRANSLATES TO BREAKER HEIGHTS OF 34 FEET. THIS
WILL PERIODICALLY INUNDATE JETTIES AND PIERS...AND WILL CREATE
LARGE SNEAKER WAVES AS WELL.
THE THIRD CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN AS THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND QUALIFIES AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
EVENT. CURRENTLY...SO TO SPEAK...STREAMFLOWS ARE VERY LOW AND
RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE DOWN. THE STORM WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY...SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT
WILL BE RAINING HEAVILY SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY CREATE SOME LOCAL
URBAN/SMALL STREAM TYPE FLOODING.
SNOW WILL INITIALLY NOT BE A CONCERN WITH SNOW LEVELS UP AROUND
8000 FEET...BUT THEY WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FEET SATURDAY
EVENING. SO THE MOUNTAINS MAY GET SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON THE BACK END
OF THIS EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY...WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND BEYOND...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
THINKING WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN
UNANIMOUS IN REBUILDING THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL RETREAT TO
THE NORTH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW, ALBEIT LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
STRONG INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN SEND US INTO
A PATTERN OF LIGHT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS WITH AT LEAST NIGHTTIME AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. AIR STAGNATION SEEMS ALMOST A FOREGONE
CONCLUSION DESPITE ONE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY. BUT ALL THIS WILL DO IS MOMENTARILY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND
RELAX THE OFFSHORE FLOW. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE RIDGE
WILL REBUILD STRONGLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INLAND NEXT
WEEKEND...PERHAPS ALLOWING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO REACH WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. BUT, FOR OBVIOUS REASONS, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS QUITE LOW.
THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWING ITS TYPICAL BIAS OF BRINGING
SYSTEMS INTO THE RIDGE TOO STRONG AND TOO FAST WITH A POTENT SYSTEM
ARRIVING AT THE COAST AS EARLY AS SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER
ONE QUICK ON ITS HEELS FOR SUNDAY. THE SLOWER, WEAKER ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO FIT THE PATTERN BETTER AND RECENTLY HAVE
DISPLAYED MORE SKILLFUL FORECASTS AT THIS RANGE. AND, WHILE THE
ECMWF DOES BRING IN A WEAKER SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND, AGREE WITH
CPC'S WEEK TWO (8-14 DAY) ASSESSMENT WITH ODDS FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIP. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
ORZ021-022.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR
ORZ021-022.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
ORZ021-022.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ030-031.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ085.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
- GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
BTL/JRS/SPILDE/MAPThe office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 3:23 AM PST | Small Craft Advisory for Winds | MFR | 12 hr | |
| Jan 10, 3:23 AM PST | Storm Warning | MFR | 28 hr | |
| Jan 10, 4:42 AM PST | Winter Storm Watch | MFR | Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath | 11 hr |
| Jan 10, 3:18 PM PST | Wind Advisory | MFR | Klamath, Lake | 31 hr |
| Jan 10, 3:19 PM PST | Winter Storm Warning | MFR | Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath | 35 hr |
| Jan 10, 3:19 PM PST | Winter Weather Advisory | MFR | Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath, Lake | 49 hr |
Nearby
High Wind Warnings in Oregon, 2014High Wind Warnings in California, 2014Every high wind warning in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.