Hazardous Seas Warning 9, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1207 PM PST FRI FEB 14 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATES WERE MADE THIS MORNING TO THE HYDROLOGY PRODUCTS. THESE
WERE TO UPGRADE FLOOD WATCHES ON PORTIONS OF THE COQUILLE RIVER TO
WARNINGS. ADDITIONALLY, AREAL FLOOD WATCHES ACROSS THE WEST SIDE
WERE REPLACED WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND 12 TO 24 HOURS, FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE IS CLEARLY FOCUSED ALONG OUR
COASTLINE THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS IT SOUTH AND
EASTWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. UPDATES THIS
MORNING FOCUSED ON HYDROLOGY PRODUCTS. GOING FORECASTS LOOK WELL
ON TRACK, EXCEPT THAT SNOW LEVELS HAVE, LUCKILY, DIPPED A TAD
LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. UPDATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS ON SNOW LEVELS, WINDS, AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 14/12Z TAF CYCLE.

A FRONT MOVING INLAND IS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH CONTINUED RAIN. THEN A STRONGER FRONT MOVES
INLAND ON SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THESE CIGS MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY TO MAINLY MVFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS TO PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.  INLAND...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING  ARE EXPECTED BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES...THERE MAY BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
LOW. WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT DUE TO PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING WEST
SWELL. THEN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
AS A POWERFUL FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
PEAK WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS...AND ALSO PERIODS
OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM PST FRI FEB 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STORMS IS ALREADY STARTING TO
IMPACT THE REGION. THIS HAS A GOOD FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM HAWAII RUNNING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
PW VALUES IN THE MOIST PLUME ARE BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HEAVIEST ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
WHERE THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE MOIST PLUME WILL
BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN PROVIDING ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST IN CURRY AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. SNOW LEVELS START OUT HIGH (BETWEEN 7000-8000 FEET) THEN
TEMPORALLY LOWER TO 5000-6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING
AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING ROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH, BUT
STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL STILL BE THE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST
RANGE. THE NEXT STORM IS DUE TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST...COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE EASTSIDE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT RUNOFF GETTING INTO THE RIVER/STREAM/CREEK SYSTEM ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES AND
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. AS A RESULT WE HAVE NUMEROUS FLOOD
PRODUCTS OUT DETAILING ALL OF THIS. CURRENT TIME SERIES SUGGEST
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOODING AT COQUILLE RIVER AT
COQUILLE AND SOUTH FORK COQUILLE RIVER AT MYRTLE POINT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS COULD CHANGE AND STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES ON THIS.

SNOWFALL IS NOT GOING TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE PASSES AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST RIM/MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. EVEN THEN RAIN WILL DOMINATE
MOST OF THE TIME. SNOW LEVELS WILL START TO COME DOWN SATURDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT, BUT BY THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. DESPITE THIS WE CAN STILL GET SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE CASCADES.

RAIN IS NOT THE ONLY IMPACT THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
ARE ALSO PART OF THE EQUATION. WINDS WILL RAMP UP EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. IT'S GOING TO BE A CLOSE
CALL FOR HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST TODAY, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR STRONG WINDS EAST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. I EXPANDED THE WARNING AREA SOME
TO INCLUDE HIGHWAY 31 ALONG SUMMER LAKE. MODEL SHOW 700MB WINDS
BETWEEN 50-60 KTS. WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
ARE LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE'LL SEE THE WINDS
TEMPORALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, THEN WILL RAMP UP AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER STRONG FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA WITH 925MB WINDS PUSHING 70 KTS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES
AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, IF NOT MORE. WINDS IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN REDDING AND MEDFORD AND SOUTH FLOW AT
850MB. THE NAM SUGGEST THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD GET DOWNSLOPED AND
THEY COULD GET GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON, BUT MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER.

WE'LL FINALLY CATCH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER SUNDAY. WE'LL STILL HAVE
PRECIPITATION AROUND, BUT NOT HEAVY AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW
PASS LEVELS ALONG THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ORZ030-031.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ023-025>028.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-024.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021-022-024.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ027-028.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR CAZ085.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ080.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
  FOR PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
- GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
  PZZ370.

BTL/TRW/CC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
201 PM PST FRI FEB 14 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE ASHLAND           42.18N 122.69W
02/14/2014  M1.00 INCH       JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.00 IN 24 HOURS ENDING AT 1400 PST. HEAVY
            RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS OBSERVER LOCATION IN
            TOWN SE

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
244 PM PST FRI FEB 14 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW SISKIYOU SUMMIT   42.05N 122.60W
02/14/2014  E1.77 INCH       JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            48 HOURS ENDING AT 1430 PST. HEAVY RAIN
            DURATION 48 HOURS OBSERVER LOCATION TOP OF
            SISKIYOU PASS E OF I-5

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
310 PM PST FRI FEB 14 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNW BROOKINGS         42.12N 124.34W
02/14/2014  E2.20 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOURS ENDING AT 14/1000 PST. HEAVY RAIN
            DURATION 24 HOURS OBSERVER LOCATION NEAR
            CAPE FERRELO

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
325 PM PST FRI FEB 14 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW OBRIEN            42.06N 123.73W
02/14/2014  M4.80 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOURS ENDING AT 14/1500 PST. SEASONAL
            DITCH OVERFLOWING. HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24
            HOURS OBSERVER LOCATION 1.6 MILES FROM HWY
            199 IN O BRIEN

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
342 PM PST FRI FEB 14 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW OBRIEN            42.06N 123.73W
02/14/2014  M2.87 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOURS ENDING AT 14/1530 PST. HEAVY RAIN
            DURATION 24 HOURS OBSERVER LOCATION 1.6
            MILES FROM HWY 199 IN O BRIEN

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM