Hazardous Seas Warning 8, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
401 AM PST THU FEB 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE AREA LIES IN A LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY BUT
THE PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ARRIVING
FOR THE WEST SIDE AND COAST REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WILL REVEAL
RAIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AREA SOONER THAN EARLIER
ADVERTISED AS THE MODELS INDICATE PRECIP STARTING THIS EVENING AND
GENERALLY CONTINUING AT A GOOD CLIP RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PREVIOUS
QPF FORECASTS HAVE NOT BEEN ALTERED TOO MUCH. CONFIDENCE IN THE
RAIN FORECAST IS ABOVE AVERAGE AND ADDITIONAL TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SW OREGON
INLAND VALLEYS...TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES ALONG CURRY AND FAR
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES. EAST SIDE WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER INCH AROUND MODOC TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY.
THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A LITTLE MORE
OF COOS COUNTY AND SOME OF WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY AS WELL. AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE REGION FOR AT LEAST 3
MORE CONSECUTIVE 12-HR PERIODS ON TOP OF WET SOILS, URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM RIVER FLOODING IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE GUSTY OVER THE EAST SIDE HIGHER TERRAIN
BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE WILL BE A DECREASING TREND THIS
MORNING SO I THINK THE ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT SUMMER
LAKE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND A HEADLINE ISN'T NECESSARY.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE REGION AND THE SOUTH
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD GET FAIRLY GUSTY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COAST.
LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST BOUT OF WIND WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WRAPS THROUGH THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO OREGON. WE'VE ISSUED A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST SIDE FOR
THIS EVENT.

THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER GOES AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT COOLER AIR
WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO IMPACT THE PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
DON'T ANTICIPATE NECESSARY HEADLINES AS PRECIP SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING QUICKLY BY THEN. THE PATTERN GETS ACTIVE AGAIN NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF COLDER FRONTS BRINGING SOME SNOW IMPACTS AND
LOWER SNOW LEVELS

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 13/06 TAF CYCLE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CIGS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOME IFR
FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR MOST AREAS MIDDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE NEXT SURGE
OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN -RA/RA ALONG
WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS AND OBSCURED TERRAIN RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING BUT WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG GALES OR
POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR ORZ030-031.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021>024.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021-022-024.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR CAZ085.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ376.

MTS/DW/DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1218 AM PST THU FEB 13 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE COOS BAY          43.36N 124.22W
02/13/2014  M1.55 INCH       COOS               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS OBSERVER
            LOCATION SOUTH OF COOS BAY

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1220 AM PST THU FEB 13 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ESE ASHLAND           42.18N 122.66W
02/12/2014  M1.07 INCH       JACKSON            OR   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS OBSERVER
            LOCATION 2 MI. S. OF ASHLAND AIRPORT

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1221 AM PST THU FEB 13 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE ASHLAND           42.18N 122.69W
02/13/2014  M1.00 INCH       JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS OBSERVER
            LOCATION IN TOWN SE

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM