Hazardous Seas Warning 69, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
252 PM PST WED NOV 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT OUT BETWEEN 130W AND 140W IS MOVING OUR
WAY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA
ARE RATHER MILD WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE REAL WARM SPOTS RIGHT NOW
(WHEN COMPARED TO NORMAL) ARE ROSEBURG AND MT. SHASTA CITY BOTH AT
70 DEGREES WHICH IS 12 AND 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RESPECTIVELY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THINGS TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE OVER THE WATERS AND THE EAST SIDE. BY THURSDAY MORNING,
WINDS SHOULD REACH GALES OVER THE WATERS AND WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE. WE HAVE UPGRADED TO A
GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, AND MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF HIGHWAY 31 LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT DON'T
LOOK UNUSUAL FOR A FALL STORM, BUT I DID INCREASE THE QPF AMOUNTS
A LITTLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO THE CASCADES. I ALSO
INCREASED POPS ON THE WEST SIDE FOR TOMORROW AS IT LOOKS LIKE
EVERYONE WILL SEE AT LEAST A LITTLE RAIN FROM THE CASCADES WEST.
WE WILL PROBABLY SEE PRECIPITATION END WITH A LITTLE SNOW IN THE
HIGH CASCADES LATE THURSDAY, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT TO PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS.

SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A RIDGE
BEGINS BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL LEAD TO
OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT THERE IS A CAVEAT:
THIS DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF FOG WE GET IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.
NEW RAINFALL COUPLED WITH LONG NIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FOG. IF IT IS EXTENSIVE OR PERSISTENT ENOUGH,
IT COULD LIMIT WARNING. FOR NOW, WE'LL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF
OFFSHORE FLOW WINNING THAT BATTLE, BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON. -WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SYSTEMS WILL START WORKING ON BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT AT THIS
TIME, OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS COMBINED WITH CONFIDENCE TOOLS
SUGGEST THE RIDGE HOLDS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WETTER OVER LAND BY MID NEXT WEEK,
BUT ITS SOLUTION IS NOT FAVORED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOW STRATUS/FOG WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VIS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS (INCLUDING ALL TERMINALS)
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MID THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS TO THE
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING FRIDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORM OFFSHORE AND
A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE PERIOD,
STRONGEST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO
11 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.