Freeze Warning 2, NWS Medford, OR

491 
WWUS76 KMFR 051214
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
414 AM PST WED FEB 5 2014

ORZ021-022-051700-
/O.CON.KMFR.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140205T1600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FZ.A.0003.140206T0800Z-140206T1600Z/
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COOS BAY...NORTH BEND...REEDSPORT...
BANDON...PORT ORFORD...COQUILLE...BROOKINGS...HARBOR...GOLD BEACH
414 AM PST WED FEB 5 2014

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING. A
FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. 

* TEMPERATURES: REACHING THE UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS
  EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, SIMILAR
  CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE INVERSION: AN WEAK TO MODERATE INVERSION IS PRESENT
  THIS MORNING AND ABOUT 1000 FEET DEEP. THE INVERSION WILL BE
  STRONGER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: COOS BAY...NORTH BEND...REEDSPORT... 
  BANDON...PORT ORFORD...COQUILLE.

* IMPACTS: UNPROTECTED VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED. 
  EXPOSED FAUCETS AND PIPES MAY FREEZE.

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

614 
WWUS76 KMFR 051605
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
805 AM PST WED FEB 5 2014

ORZ021-022-060015-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140205T1600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FZ.A.0003.140206T0800Z-140206T1600Z/
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COOS BAY...NORTH BEND...REEDSPORT...
BANDON...PORT ORFORD...COQUILLE...BROOKINGS...HARBOR...GOLD BEACH
805 AM PST WED FEB 5 2014

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
   THURSDAY MORNING...
...FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE FREEZE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. 

* TEMPERATURES: REACHING THE UPPER 20S IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE INVERSION: A MODERATE INVERSION AROUND 1000 FEET
  DEEP.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: COOS BAY...NORTH BEND...REEDSPORT... 
  BANDON...PORT ORFORD...COQUILLE.

* IMPACTS: UNPROTECTED VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED. 
  EXPOSED FAUCETS AND PIPES MAY FREEZE.

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

STOCKTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
254 PM PST TUE FEB 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AN
UNUSUAL FORECAST SITUATION THIS WEEK. THE GFS AND NAM12 ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MORE NORTHERLY EXTENT TO THE PRECIP WITH THE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY SYSTEM...AND THE ECMWF CONTINUES
ON TRACK WITH A STRONGER COLD POOL EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH. THIS
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION PUTS THE PRECIP INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE GONE WITH A ECMWF SOLUTION
WITH A HEDGE TO THE NORTH OF LOW END TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES. THEN COMES THE UNUSUAL FORECAST
PART...THERE IS A GOOD DELA MORE CERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
PAGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS IN INDICATING A GOOD STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION TO FINALLY BRING A CHANCE OF SATURATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THAT COULD RESULT IN RUNOFF AS WELL AS A
FIRST HEALTHY CONTRIBUTION TO SNOW PACK AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
BEFORE WE START TO THINK THAT THIS WILL SEND US IN THE OTHER
DIRECTION...WATER-WISE...IT NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED THAT THE SOIL
NEEDS A GOOD INCH TO INCH AND A HALF TO SATURATE IT BEFORE ANT
RUN-OFF EVEN STARTS. THIS THEN TAKES US INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION...

EXTENDED TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE LONG
TERM...LENDING HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST OF A
WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TELLING GIVEN THE
ABRUPT PATTERN CHANGE...AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE
REASON TO CHANGE THE HIGH END POPS THAT WERE INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS
SHIFTS. HOWEVER...SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO BRING TEMPERATURES
AND SNOW LEVELS INTO LINE WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL ENTER THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING. IVT AND OTHER MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE A
CONNECTION BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCES. WHILE
THIS "ATMOSPHERIC RIVER" FEATURE  DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A STRONG
ONE...IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN THAT THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY SUCH
EVENTS THIS SEASON. WITH SUCH A FEATURE...TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL JUMP UPWARDS AS THE MOISTURE MOVES IN...SO HAVE UPPED
THOSE PARAMETERS FROM THE COOLER PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 5000 FEET...WHILE TEMPERATURES APPROACH
SEASONAL NORMALS. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS EVENT IS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE BEEN QUICK TO PUSH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL THROUGH THE AREA
OVER A PERIOD OF 6 TO 12 HOURS. THIS DOES NOT LEND ITSELF TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT THERE IS STILL GOOD REASON TO EXPECT AN INCH
OR MORE OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. AS THE PREDOMINANT FLOW WILL
BE WEST TO EAST...NORTH/SOUTH TRENDING RIDGELINES CAN EXPECT HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS TO A VERY
BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE...THROUGH WHICH MANY FAST MOVING WAVES
ARE LIKELY TO TRAVERSE. WILL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH CONCERNING THE
ACTIVE PATTERN...THERE IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF ANY
INDIVIDUAL FEATURE. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND NUMEROUS
WAVES EXPECTED...FOUND NO REASON TO DECREASE POPS...AS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY BE ONGOING BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERM. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND 4000
FEET AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MARINE...

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ021-022.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

SBN/SBN/SBN