Flood Watch 2, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
352 AM PST FRI FEB 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STORMS IS ALREADY STARTING TO
IMPACT THE REGION. THIS HAS A GOOD FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM HAWAII RUNNING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
PW VALUES IN THE MOIST PLUME ARE BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HEAVIEST ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
WHERE THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE MOIST PLUME WILL
BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN PROVIDING ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST IN CURRY AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. SNOW LEVELS START OUT HIGH (BETWEEN 7000-8000 FEET) THEN
TEMPORALLY LOWER TO 5000-6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING
AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING ROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH, BUT
STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL STILL BE THE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST
RANGE. THE NEXT STORM IS DUE TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST...COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE EASTSIDE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT RUNOFF GETTING INTO THE RIVER/STREAM/CREEK SYSTEM ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES AND
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. AS A RESULT WE HAVE NUMEROUS FLOOD
PRODUCTS OUT DETAILING ALL OF THIS. CURRENT TIME SERIES SUGGEST
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOODING AT COQUILLE RIVER AT
COQUILLE AND SOUTH FORK COQUILLE RIVER AT MYRTLE POINT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS COULD CHANGE AND STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES ON THIS.

SNOWFALL IS NOT GOING TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE PASSES AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST RIM/MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. EVEN THEN RAIN WILL DOMINATE
MOST OF THE TIME. SNOW LEVELS WILL START TO COME DOWN SATURDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT, BUT BY THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. DESPITE THIS WE CAN STILL GET SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE CASCADES.

RAIN IS NOT THE ONLY IMPACT THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
ARE ALSO PART OF THE EQUATION. WINDS WILL RAMP UP EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. IT'S GOING TO BE A CLOSE
CALL FOR HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST TODAY, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR STRONG WINDS EAST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. I EXPANDED THE WARNING AREA SOME
TO INCLUDE HIGHWAY 31 ALONG SUMMER LAKE. MODEL SHOW 700MB WINDS
BETWEEN 50-60 KTS. WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
ARE LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE'LL SEE THE WINDS
TEMPORALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, THEN WILL RAMP UP AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER STRONG FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA WITH 925MB WINDS PUSHING 70 KTS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES
AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, IF NOT MORE. WINDS IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER WITH A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN REDDING AND MEDFORD AND SOUTH FLOW AT
850MB. THE NAM SUGGEST THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD GET DOWNSLOPED AND
THEY COULD GET GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON, BUT MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER.

WE'LL FINALLY CATCH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER SUNDAY. WE'LL STILL HAVE
PRECIPITATION AROUND, BUT NOT HEAVY AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW
PASS LEVELS ALONG THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 14/06Z TAF CYCLE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -RA/RA AND EVEN SOME PERIODS OF
IFR IN +RA. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WIND
SPEED SHEAR AT SOME OF THE WEST SIDE TERMINALS, BUT THIS SHOULD END
BY MID MORNING. THERE SHOULD STILL BE CONSIDERABLE MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE THOUGH, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST SIDE NEAR KLMT. TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE NEAR TOTAL TODAY AND AT LEAST MVFR WILL PERSIST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR
EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BUT WILL STALL
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SOUTH GALES EARLY
THIS MORNING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
TO THE SOUTH. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE VERY STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS,
WHICH WILL BE SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE DOMINATED. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. THIS RAINY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS...AND ALSO PERIODS
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ORZ030-031.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021>028.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021-022-024.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ027-028.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR CAZ085.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ370.

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