Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1031 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE JUMPED UP TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY WITH
MAGNITUDE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (-6.4 C/KM) AND H5 TEMPS
(-7.5 C) SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND SFC BASED CAPE AROUND 4500
J/KG. STORM MOTION VECTOR FOR THE DAY IS FROM THE EAST AT LESS
THAN 3 KNOTS. BASICALLY STORMS WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT LIKELY DOMINATED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. ALL IN ALL, THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR THE DAY INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY WITH INLAND
STORMS. SO WILL AMEND HWO ACCORDINGLY. ENSEMBLE OF HIGH RES MODELS
AND HRRR ALSO INDICATE THAT BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
REMAIN FOR THE INTERIOR SOUTH WITH HIGH CHANCES SPREADING TOWARDS
THE WEST COAST AND LOWER CHANCES SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS PARTICULARLY
STARTING AROUND 2 PM AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE LATEST MODEL RUN
SHOWED ISLTD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AROUND 16-17Z JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE ORIENTED OUT OF
THE ENE. WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST SITES TO CORRESPOND
WITH THIS TIMING FOR NOW AND UPDATE AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE TODAY.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AND SETUP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
AND SHIFT TO OFFSHORE ALONG EACH COAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SOUTH FLORIDA IS UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE 00Z AUG 20
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTH
FLORIDA SINCE THE WEEKEND IS ERODING BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB (OR 3-4
KM ABOVE THE SURFACE). THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE LIDAR LOCATED
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI. THE LIDAR ALSO SHOWS THAT THE SAHARAN
LAYER IS BEING ERODED FROM BELOW. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST, AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC (BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT) WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOURCE OF CLEANER AIR. THE LOW
LEVEL VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE CIMMS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
BAHAMAS MOVING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND THE
DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE SATURDAY. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THIS INCREASE IN PW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PW DECREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SE
US.

THE FLOW OF EASTERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR LOWER POPS FOR THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
THE WEEKEND SEEMS TO BE THE DRIEST PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR FROM THE
ATLANTIC AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CHANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE PRESENT TIME IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT IF
A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
LEAST WE CAN BE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE IS FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES. THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INCLUDES A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MARINE... WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 126 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...

WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WHICH WILL
FAVOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR. AT THE
PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT INCLUDING VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS SINCE THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. HOWEVER, INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 15Z EXCEPT PBI. APF HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION,
AS THE EASTERLY FLOW FAVORS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR, AND SOMETIMES IT COULD AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  91  78 /  30  10  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  81  91  80 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  91  80 /  30  10  30  10
NAPLES           91  78  92  78 /  50  10  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....52/PS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
210000-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY INTERIOR...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IN PARTICULAR ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WIND: LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS.

FLOODING: STORMS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY
WITH PROPAGATION AND/OR MOVEMENT DRIVEN MOSTLY BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. THIS MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN MINOR STREET FLOODING PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST.

TEMPERATURES: MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES
ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LESS ACTIVITY FOR THE WEEKEND.

THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

FLZ066-201845-
HENDRY FL-
209 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL HENDRY ...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 208 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  NEAR MONTURA. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.  LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  MONTURA AND DEVILS GARDEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI. FOR INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI/ESPANOL.

&&

LAT...LON 2675 8106 2657 8104 2649 8125 2673 8128
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 079DEG 4KT 2666 8114

MOLLEDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

FLZ073-173-174-201845-
INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL-
214 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MIAMI DADE
COUNTY...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 212 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  OVER RICHMOND WEST...OR NEAR THE REDLAND...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10
  MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM WEST KENDALL AND
  COUNTRY WALK TO THE HOMESTEAD AREA.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.  LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER
RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO
PROTECTION. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND
BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  HOMESTEAD...THE REDLAND...FLORIDA CITY...RICHMOND WEST...LEISURE
  CITY...NARANJA...COUNTRY WALK...GOULDS...INTERSECTION KROME AND
  KENDALL DRIVE...THE HAMMOCKS...PRINCETON...INLIKITA...SOUTH MIAMI
  HEIGHTS AND THREE LAKES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

LAT...LON 2571 8050 2559 8037 2544 8047 2556 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 040DEG 8KT 2560 8047

MOLLEDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
249 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

FLZ073-075-174-201915-
INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-
MAINLAND MONROE FL-
249 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR SOUTHERN INLAND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY AND EAST CENTRAL MAINLAND MONROE...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 249 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN EVERGLADES NEAR MAHOGANY HAMMOCK...OR 16
  MILES NORTHEAST OF FLAMINGO...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.  LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  MAHOGANY HAMMOCK AND EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

LAT...LON 2517 8078 2515 8080 2518 8080 2516 8083
      2520 8088 2530 8095 2530 8097 2544 8077
      2532 8063 2520 8072 2521 8074 2518 8073
      2518 8076 2517 8074 2516 8077 2514 8078
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 043DEG 9KT 2533 8076

MOLLEDA