Small Craft Advisory 15, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)
THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO MODIFY THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTH TO EAST. THE LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS TRANSITION AND INDICATES
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE TO THE LOWER 60S TOWARD AND
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THIS EASTERLY
FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT HIGHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A SHALLOW CU
FIELD DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THAT COULD LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NNW SECTIONS OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

85/AG

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)

A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS, WILL MOVE EAST, THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, TO END UP OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY SATURDAY 18Z. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS A 500MB TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH IT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MID DAY. CURRENTLY, HAVE A A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BUT, CLOUD COVER AND EVEN RAIN COVERAGE COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SO THERE IS GREAT
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.

BY SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST,
AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA, THERE IS
STILL A LOW END CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY, MAINLY FOR ANY
RESIDUAL RAIN FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
TIMING. BEHIND THIS FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ONCE AGAIN
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK, NEXT WEEK.

13/SI

&&

.MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  78  71  82 /  10  10  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  78  73  82 /  10  10  10  20
MIAMI            62  79  71  83 /  10  10  10  20
NAPLES           54  83  66  83 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...85/AG
LONG TERM....13/SI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
952 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
271400-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
952 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

WAVES: SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM
AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES AROUND 7 FEET IN THE
GULF STREAM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

BAXTER