Wind Advisory 14, NWS Memphis, TN

369 
WWUS74 KMEG 072020
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
320 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-MOZ113-115-080000-
/O.CON.KMEG.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-140508T0000Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...POCAHONTAS...PIGGOTT...CORNING...
WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...
WYNNE...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE
320 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 25 TO 30
  MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS TO BE 
  BLOWN AROUND IF NOT SECURED. DRIVERS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED BY STRONG WINDS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

SWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND BACK INTO KENTUCKY AND THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS...NEAR THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND INTO WEST TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND
PROFILES INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL SITUATED ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT
ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS
MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FROM KLZK/KJAN/KOHX/KSHV INDICATE A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND DRY ATMOSPHERE PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN RAIN FREE WEATHER. SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN
BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVE
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY BE CONDITIONAL AT BEST AND WILL
ONLY MENTION A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND NEVER MAKE IT
INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
FRIDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS THEY MOVE INTO
A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE AIRMASS MAY BECOME UNSTABLE
AGAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATELY STEEP
700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 KM...SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES INCREASING BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG...0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35-45 KTS SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE
HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA IS
FEATURED IN THE SPC DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MID SOUTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING AND REMAIN GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTH UNTIL SUNSET.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
424 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-080930-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
424 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL ARE THE THREATS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.