Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
317 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING/CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED HAS RESULTED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S
FORECAST ISSUANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. AN 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT INTO ARKANSAS. THIS LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST SHOULD ASSIST IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. KEPT
CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING MAINLY RAIN FREE WEATHER TO
THE MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. THE BUILDING RIDGE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MIDDLE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE LATE TUESDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TODAY/S 12Z MODEL
RUN IS SOMEWHAT LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING OUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND SUBSEQUENTLY HELD ON TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

LOOKS LIKE MEM WILL GET A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME...AND
EXPECTED. WILL REINTRODUCE VCTS AT 20Z. SHOWERS WITH INTERMITTENT
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE AT MKL WITH A BREAK LIKELY AROUND MID
AFTERNOON...REDEVELOPMENT IS LESS CERTAIN AT MKL...BUT WILL ADD
VCSH AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE...BUT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AND COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMAL BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT LATE TONIGHT. VIS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR LEVELS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM...BUT PREVAILING VIS WILL REMAIN VFR.

JDS
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-291045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
338 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
406 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

MSZ023-282130-
CHICKASAW MS-
406 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR...

  WESTERN CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH
WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PYLAND AT 406 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH
AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CHICKASAW COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HOUSTON...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3375 8914 3405 8914 3402 8888 3375 8898
      3375 8903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 190DEG 22KT 3385 8907

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
520 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

ARZ048-049-282245-
LEE AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
520 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR...

  WESTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTH CENTRAL ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH
WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF AUBREY AT 517 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT
35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LEE AND ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
PALESTINE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 9097 3496 9071 3464 9085 3467 9106
      3474 9106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 199DEG 29KT 3474 9094

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

MSZ012-020-282245-
TALLAHATCHIE MS-PANOLA MS-
521 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR...

  CENTRAL PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL WINDS TO 50 MPH WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ENID AT 520 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 35
MPH.

PEOPLE IN PANOLA AND TALLAHATCHIE COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
BATESVILLE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3440 9007 3437 8981 3404 8999 3408 9013
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 199DEG 29KT 3416 9004