Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
311 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
SURFACE LOW IS NO OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR EAST TEXAS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
THERE IS A LEAST SOME RISK OF A TORNADO SO THERE IS A TORNADO
WATCH OUT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 9 PM. IN ADDITIONAL
WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRETTY STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF OVER 30 MPH REPORTED OVER
PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS. WE WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL
9 PM AS WELL.

AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN ENDING IN MOST AREA
BY MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP PRETTY
QUICKLY WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS MORE
PACIFIC IN NATURE SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO BAD ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WHICH IS STILL SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS WELL WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOME BY
SUNDAY SO THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR BEHIND IT SO MONDAY WILL BE
A LITTLE COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS FRONT ALSO WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR BEHIND IT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND NEXT THURSDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW DEEPENS OVER MO AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS TRANSLATES INTO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 35-40 KTS.

PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAINLY BTN 2500-3000FT CONT AT MAINLY OVR THE NE
PORTION OF THE REGION WITH MORE BREAKS AND VFR TO THE SE. CIGS
SHOULD CONT TO LIFT SLOWLY UNTIL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT.

STORMS HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN NE TX WHERE CAPPING IS A
BIT WEAKER. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH STORMS DVLPG OVR AR
DURING THE 19-21Z RANGE. STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE
SOLID LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...IMPACTING KMEM BETWEEN
20/21Z-21/00Z. THIS LINE WILL RACE EAST AND SHOULD IMPACT KMKL
BETWEEN 20/22Z-21/01Z AND KTUP BETWEEN 21/00Z-21/02Z. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED TO IFR DURING ANY STRONG CONVECTION.

WINDS WILL SWITCH NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND
BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS SKIES EVENTUALLY
CLEAR. CLEAR SKIES AND WEST WINDS 5-10KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU
18Z FRI.

NGU

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  40  60  41  67 /  50   0  10  10
MKL  36  59  34  65 /  70  10  10  10
JBR  37  58  37  61 /  20   0  10  10
TUP  39  61  35  66 /  90  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-211445-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
636 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RISK WILL OCCUR DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BECOME LIKELY AND POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD. A FEW SIGNIFICANT
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IS NOT THE PRIMARY RISK IN THIS
AREA. THE GREATEST RISK WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH. REFER
TO THE LATEST PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.

AC3

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
306 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

ARZ026-027-202130-
CRAIGHEAD AR-POINSETT AR-
306 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 330 PM CST FOR...

  CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50
MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF CASH AT 306 PM CST...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD AND POINSETT COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
BROOKLAND AND JONESBORO...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3580 9101 3597 9061 3597 9051 3585 9041
      3564 9090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 240DEG 41KT 3578 9084

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

ARZ049-058-202145-
LEE AR-PHILLIPS AR-
313 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 345 PM CST FOR...

  LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARVELL AT 313 PM
CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LEE AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
MARIANNA AND MARVELL...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3491 9104 3491 9051 3464 9059 3449 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 235DEG 44KT 3466 9100

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
328 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

ARZ026-027-202200-
CRAIGHEAD AR-POINSETT AR-
328 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 400 PM CST FOR...

  CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTH CENTRAL POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50
MPH WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JONESBORO AT 328 PM
CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD AND POINSETT COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
BAY...BROOKLAND...JONESBORO...LAKE CITY AND MONETTE...SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 9047 3596 9039 3600 9037 3600 9030
      3581 9030 3566 9074 3582 9084
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 245DEG 46KT 3578 9067