Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
451 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD A FEW MORE MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES TO TORNADO WATCH 106.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STORMS IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WILL MOVE INTO DEEPER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI BEFORE 8 AM. SO HAVE ADDED
TALLHATCHIE...LAFAYETTE...YALOBUSHA...AND CALHOUN COUNTIES TO THE
CURRENT TORNADO WATCH.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS BLANKETED BY AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH
A NOSE OF 1000+ J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE EXTENDING ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ON RADAR CONVECTION HAS REMAINED INTENSE OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE LATEST TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 13Z/8AM THIS MORNING FROM POINTS WEST
OF A PARIS TENNESSEE TO CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI LINE. THE STRONGEST
OF STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE MEMPHIS METRO AFTER 5 AM.

FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...SEVERE WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. A MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MOST OF THE EASTERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
REMAINING WESTERN COUNTIES. CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF
NOT TO FAR EAST OF MEMPHIS...WITH REDEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND NOON. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO INCLUDE THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. THE FLASHFLOODING THREAT IS ALSO VERY
REAL...WITH A LOT OF TODAY'S CONVECTION TRACKING RIGHT BACK OVER
YESTERDAYS FLOODED AREA ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI STATE
LINE. 3+ INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN THIS ZONE AND ANOTHER 1 TO 3 IS
EXPECTED TODAY THRU EARLY TONIGHT. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY...REMOVING THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND SHORTENING THE
TIME THROUGH 18Z. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE LOOSENING
THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND THE MIDWEST SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FILL. THUS
CONVECTION WILL WANE QUICKLY THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST. HOWEVER
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER A MODIFIED UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. ONLY A SMALL SLIVER OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IS OUTLOOKED
FOR A SLIGHT RISK TOMORROW...AND LIKELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WEAKENS FURTHER LIMITING THE TORNADO THREAT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAINED SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE DECAYING WAVE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE BY FRIDAY AND LIFT ON
OUT. THUS THE WEATHER FOR OUR REGION WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. WEAK
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW MAY SPARK OFF A FEW LIGHT
SPRINKLES OVER THE NORTHERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WARMER WEATHER WILL START ITS RETURN TO
THE MIDSOUTH...TO INCLUDE A SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. FOR NOW
THE PERIOD APPEARS DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A LULL IN CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH JUST WITHIN THE LAST HOUR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE VICINITY OF MEM. THE NEXT ORGANIZED ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
ON THE WAY...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS. TSRA ARRIVAL IS
EXPECTED AT JBR ABOUT 7-8Z...MEM AROUND 09Z...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
STORM AT MEM MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED DURATION OF TSRA. AT MKL
TSRA ARRIVAL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 9 AND 11Z...AND TUP AROUND
11-12Z. TEMPORARY IFR CONDS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MVFR TO VFR. EXPECT RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. MULTIPLE
AMENDMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...APPROACH AND
MOVE AWAY FROM TAF SITES. TIMING OF ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY NEED ADJUSTMENT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST 10-20KT...BUT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS STRONG GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE BOTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
323 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-291030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
323 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH. A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS EAST OF
A CAMDEN TENNESSEE...TO A CHARLESTON MISSISSIPPI LINE. A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIES TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE.

A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.
TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASHFLOODING REMAINS LIKELY TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH.

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON TUESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND POSSIBLY ON TUESDAY.

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
513 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CARDWELL                36.05N 90.29W
04/28/2014                   DUNKLIN            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DEPUTY REPORTS LARGE SHOP BUILDING DESTROYED JUST NORTH
            OF CARDWELL.

&&

AJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
524 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CAMPBELL                36.49N 90.07W
04/28/2014                   DUNKLIN            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY ROADS IN THE NORTH END OF THE COUNTY ARE UNDER
            WATER. PEOPLE HAVE BEEN RESCUED FROM HOMES IN THE
            CAMPBELL AREA.

&&

ZDM