Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Memphis, TN

368 
WWUS54 KMEG 242133
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
433 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ARC031-111-242200-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-140424T2200Z/
CRAIGHEAD AR-POINSETT AR-
433 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR POINSETT AND CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES...

AT 433 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EGYPT TO 6 MILES WEST OF
FISHER...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF BONO TO 13
MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWPORT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BAY...BLACK
OAK...BONO...BROOKLAND...CARAWAY...FISHER...HARRISBURG...JONESBORO...
LAKE CITY...LEPANTO...MONETTE...TRUMANN...LACHE LAKE AND WINESBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 9104 3588 9088 3592 9087 3597 9054
      3596 9039 3599 9038 3600 9029 3555 9029
      3544 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 249DEG 41KT 3591 9088 3549 9105

$$

833 
WWUS54 KMEG 242200
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
500 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ARC031-111-242211-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-140424T2200Z/
CRAIGHEAD AR-POINSETT AR-
500 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR POINSETT AND CRAIGHEAD
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

AT 501 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3589 9104 3588 9088 3592 9087 3597 9054
      3596 9039 3599 9038 3600 9029 3555 9029
      3544 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 249DEG 41KT 3591 9088 3549 9105

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SEVERE
AT TIMES AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS THERE
IS OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
NOT BE TOO MUCH COLDER THAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BY
SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH WHICH HELP BRINGING WARMER
AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

BY SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL START TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
EASTERN TEXAS SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. BY
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT SO MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SPC
HAS OUR AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

BY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE REGION AND
THEN SLOW DOWN SOME. THIS WILL KEEP SOME THREAT OF RAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE IN THE MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY AND START TO ROTATE
AND HAVE LITTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THIS WILL MEAN CLOUDY AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND NEXT THURSDAY WILL A CHANCE OF
RAIN REMAINING IN THE FORECAST.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS CYCLE AS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAVERSES ALL FOUR SITES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ADVECTING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
LOWER...BUT REMAIN IN VFR CRITERIA...THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR KJBR AROUND 22Z...KMEM AROUND 23Z...KMKL AROUND
00Z...AND KTUP AROUND 03Z. CIGS AND VISBY WILL LOWER INTO MVFR
CRITERIA AS THE FRONT PASSES EACH SITE. HAVE KEPT MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND EVEN AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AS WELL...BUT FROM A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATER IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-251030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
319 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE THAN
ONE ROUND ALSO EXISTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST INFORMATION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

JAB