Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Memphis, TN

213 
WWUS54 KMEG 022208
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
508 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

ARC031-055-075-022230-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-140402T2230Z/
CRAIGHEAD AR-GREENE AR-LAWRENCE AR-
508 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...GREENE AND NORTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD
COUNTIES...

AT 509 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LORADO...OR NEAR LAKE FRIERSON STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BONO...
BROOKLAND...PARAGOULD...SEDGWICK...WHISKERVILLE...GILES SPUR...WALNUT
CORNER...LORADO...LIGHT...FAULKNERVILLE...STANFORD...STONEWALL...
GAINESVILLE AND NOXBURN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 9099 3615 9089 3615 9081 3619 9080
      3626 9047 3595 9038 3580 9097 3584 9097
      3588 9099
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 236DEG 38KT 3602 9073

$$

179 
WWUS54 KMEG 022227
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
527 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

ARC031-055-075-022238-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-140402T2230Z/
CRAIGHEAD AR-GREENE AR-LAWRENCE AR-
527 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...GREENE
AND NORTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM CDT...

AT 528 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3597 9099 3615 9089 3615 9081 3619 9080
      3626 9047 3595 9038 3580 9097 3584 9097
      3588 9099
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 236DEG 38KT 3613 9052

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
317 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY TO HELP FOCUS LIFT. THE
CURRENT RADAR IS INDICATIVE OF THE UNFOCUSED SURFACE LIFT SHOWING
MANY SMALL SHOWERS BUT NOTHING SUSTAINED FOR MORE THAN A FEW
VOLUME SCANS. A 35-40 LLJ WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
HELPING TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT BUT SURFACE FOCUS WILL REMAIN
AN ISSUE. ADDITIONALLY...DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE AS
THE LLJ STRENGTHENS/MOVES INTO THE REGION. BY 06Z...WE SHOULD SEE
A MORE RESPECTABLE 40-50KT LLJ...BUT THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
THE LACKING INGREDIENT.

ADDITIONAL MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TOMORROW AS A DEEP TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE MAIN
TROUGH MAINTAINS A NEUTRAL TILT...ALTHOUGH AN ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE
THAT SMALLER IMPULSES ATTAINING A NEGATIVE TILT ROTATING AROUND
THE TROUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS.
NEVERTHELESS...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD HELP VENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP HELPING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS. MODEL INSTABILITY /ON
THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 CAPE IN EAST ARKANSAS/ BY MIDDAY TOMORROW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GET STORMS DEVELOPING BY 18Z IF NOT
EARLIER. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION GETS GOING OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING...THAT INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE REALIZED.
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND...TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING
ARE ALL THREATS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

TIMING OF THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRICKY
AS STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR
BY MIDDAY AND AFTER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IRREGARDLESS OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS LIKELY.
DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY MODE OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE LINE...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL WOULD BE A
SECONDARY THREAT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...AND POSSIBLY THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL EXCEEDING TWO INCHES. FLOODING AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY...BUT AS OF NOW GUIDANCE
HAS SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 20-23 MPH...SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY BUT AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S SATURDAY.

MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN LOW...GENERALLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER MONDAY
AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING IN A RE ENFORCING SHOT OF DIRER AIR...BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND GUSTS PUSHING 20-25KTS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP SOME
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIKELY AFTER 22Z AT THE TAFS
SITES...RIGHT AROUND 22Z FOR KMEM. WILL ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED AS
STORMS DEVELOP...AFTER THIS WAVE PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL TEMP LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGHER CIGS LIKELY OUTSIDE OF
KTUP THROUGH 6Z OR 12Z...BEFORE WINDS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM
THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR TSRA OR SHRA AFTER 03/15Z. -ABS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  65  79  61  70 /  60  80  90  10
MKL  64  77  61  69 /  50  70  90  20
JBR  64  77  56  65 /  70  80  90  10
TUP  63  79  63  74 /  30  50  90  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
230 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-032130-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
230 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PARIS
TENNESSEE TO CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO
AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE ABLE TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT HIGH...BUT
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW IN EAST ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE MID SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ANY TIME DURING THE
DAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT IS HIGHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND LIKELY REQUIRED FOR LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.