Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
715 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A VERY ACTIVE AND UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY IS
FORECAST THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHT FORWARD.

A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WITH A LARGE UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. AS ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
MO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AR WHILE OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG
A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST TN. HOT...VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WAS PUSHING INTO THE MIDSOUTH SOUTH OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE ABOVE 4000 J/KG IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AR AND ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDSOUTH. LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO BETWEEN
MINUS 8 AND MINUS 10. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 2.5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TIMING
VARYING NORTH TO SOUTH BASED ON THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HEAT INDEX READINGS HAVE
PEAKED AROUND 105 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS...THINK THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY ATTM BUT WILL ISSUE A
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTH MS TUESDAY
MORNING TAKING THE RAIN WILL IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
FASTER IN MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA...SO ADJUSTED THE POPS
ACCORDINGLY. SOME INCREDIBLY NICE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S AND ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH LOW HUMIDITY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE
AREA.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AN UNUSUAL OVERRUNNING
WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RESULTING IN MORE
RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUT WEST...THE MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH HERE AS A COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO EDGE BACK AS A WARM FRONT WITH A SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO OUR EAST
BY SATURDAY WITH DECREASING POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. THE REGION WILL
BECOME BETTER ENTRENCHED IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD TSRA FROM MKL TO AND JUST SOUTH OF MEM. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND INTO TUP
BY 15/01Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CONDS DUE TO +RA AND TSRA. -SHRA WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THROUGH 15/10Z. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES...BUT NOT ENOUGH SHORT TERM CONFIDENCE ATTM TO DETERMINE
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE AS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AT ALL SITES BY 15/09Z WITH
FROPA...WITH NNE WINDS AT ALL SITES BY 15/15Z. THEN AFTER...VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PHILLIPS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEE AR.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-
     COAHOMA-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     MCNAIRY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-160145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
631 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MEMPHIS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W SHARON              36.23N 88.88W
07/14/2014                   WEAKLEY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 60 MPH.

0233 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHARON                  36.23N 88.82W
07/14/2014                   WEAKLEY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 LARGE TREES DOWN AND NUMEROUS SMALL TREES DOWN.ROOF AND
            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO AT LEAST ONE HOME ON NORTH HWY AVE.
            POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE COMMUNITY.

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N JACKSON             35.65N 88.83W
07/14/2014                   MADISON            TN   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES ON OLD MEDINA RD.

0314 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMDEN                  36.06N 88.10W
07/14/2014                   BENTON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF WASHINGTON AND FRASYER
            STREETS.

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMDEN                  36.06N 88.10W
07/14/2014                   BENTON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN AROUND BEAVER DAM AREA
            AND THE TOWN OF CAMDEN.

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE JONESBORO         35.80N 90.67W
07/14/2014                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   PUBLIC

            POLES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 63. NEAR EAST PARKER ROAD AND
            ONE PLACE.

0341 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JACKSON                 35.63N 88.83W
07/14/2014                   MADISON            TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ON AIRWAYS BLVD POWER LINES DOWN.

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
07/14/2014                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWER AND LIGHT POLES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 63 AND PARKER ROAD
            EAST OF CARAWAY ROAD IN JONESBORO.

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HENDERSON               35.44N 88.65W
07/14/2014                   CHESTER            TN   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWNA AND SHINGLES LIFTED OFF ROOF.

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     E GERMANTOWN            35.09N 89.79W
07/14/2014                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES SNAPPED AND SOME UPROOTED ACROSS RAILROAD TRACKS AT
            POPLAR AND POPLAR PIKE NEAR GERMANTOWN AND COLLIERVILLE
            BORDER.

0438 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SE DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS     35.13N 90.05W
07/14/2014                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A LARGE TREE FELL ON HOUSE LOCATED ON NORFOLK STREET
            VCNTY OF INTERSTATE 240 AND EAST PERSON ROAD.

0508 PM     TSTM WND GST     W SOMERVILLE            35.24N 89.35W
07/14/2014  E67.00 MPH       FAYETTE            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 67 MPH IN CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S BARTLETT            35.14N 89.84W
07/14/2014                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON GOODLETT BETWEEN APPLING AND WHITTEN ROAD.

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE BARTLETT           35.16N 89.77W
07/14/2014                   SHELBY             TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            POWER LINES DOWN ON WHITTEN ROAD NEAR FLETCHER
            CREEK/KAMALI RD.

0553 PM     TSTM WND GST     JACKSON                 35.63N 88.83W
07/14/2014  M62.00 MPH       MADISON            TN   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WIND GUST TO 62 MPH RECORDED AT JACKSON AIRPORT.

&&

MRM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
724 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E SOMERVILLE          35.24N 89.26W
07/14/2014                   FAYETTE            TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DAMAGE. SOME ROTATION IN THE DEBRIS NOT CONNECTED TO
            CLOUD BASE.

&&

TLSJR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
724 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

MSZ002-006-009-013>017-150115-
UNION MS-TISHOMINGO MS-PRENTISS MS-PONTOTOC MS-MARSHALL MS-LEE MS-
LAFAYETTE MS-ITAWAMBA MS-
724 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN PONTOTOC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  EAST CENTRAL LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 14
MILES NORTHWEST OF ETTA AT 724 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN ITAWAMBA...LAFAYETTE...LEE...MARSHALL...PONTOTOC...
PRENTISS...TISHOMINGO AND UNION COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
BALDWYN...BOONEVILLE...IUKA...J P COLEMAN STATE PARK...NEW ALBANY AND
TISHOMINGO STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3437 8816 3431 8932 3459 8930 3459 8925
      3460 8924 3459 8873 3476 8871 3476 8836
      3500 8835 3500 8820 3492 8815 3489 8809
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 277DEG 52KT 3464 8924