Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1248 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO MAKE A FEW TWEAKS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED THE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHEAST AR...WEST TN AND THE MO BOOTHEEL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40.

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A STRONG CLOSED LOW PUSHING INTO MN
AND WI WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN IL THROUGH
NORTHERN MO INTO NORTHEASTERN KS. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MO. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTEND ACROSS
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST AR FROM THE CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN MO BY EARLY EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TN WILL PUSH
EAST SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH NEW CONVECTION
FIRING UP BEGINNING EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WEST TN...NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. A FEW STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS LIFTED INDICES
DECREASE TO BETWEEN MINUS 8 AND MINUS 9...AND MIXED LAYER CAPES
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 J/KG. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2.3 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. VERY HOT AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ITO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...925 MB TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR 26 DEGREES CELSIUS
ON THE 12Z LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING.

JCL

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 322 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY WARM AND MOIST. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
THAT MLCAPES WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG IN MOST AREAS ALONG WITH LI/S
OF LESS THAN -6C. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TODAY...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE FURTHER
SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS
AND LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTERS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LARGE HAIL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND HELP TO
FORCE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES FURTHER. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY MORNING WITH QUICKLY
TAPERING POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST AREAS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AND MUCH LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS BUILD OVER THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BUILDING CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY LOW LEADING TO VERY PLEASANT MID
SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL STALL
OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIFT THE FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD BE STRETCHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THIS MAY
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. THIS THREAT
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BECOME ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT OUT BY SUNDAY WITH THE
FRONT WASHING OUT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS INCREASINGLY WARM...MOIST...AND
UNSTABLE.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF AN OVERALL WETTER
PATTERN AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

TS NOW BUILDING IN BOOTHEEL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT JBR, MEM,
MKL TO BE IN VCTS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. TUP TO GET INTO
VCTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND WINDSTORMS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT AROUND THESE EAST MOVING STORMS. WINDS TO VEER AT NORTHERN
APTS FIRST...THEN VEERING IN MEM AND MKL. CEILING TO DROP AS THE
FROM COMES IN. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF AREA TMR MORN.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
221 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-151100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
221 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MEMPHIS.

JCL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
155 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

ARZ028-MOZ113-115-TNZ019-048-141945-
MISSISSIPPI AR-DUNKLIN MO-PEMISCOT MO-DYER TN-LAUDERDALE TN-
155 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  SOUTHERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  NORTH CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF MANILA AT 155 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN DUNKLIN...DYER...LAUDERDALE...MISSISSIPPI AND PEMISCOT
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BLYTHEVILLE...GOSNELL...
LEACHVILLE...MANILA AND STEELE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES BIG LAKE.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 8963 3577 9029 3602 9030 3613 8962
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 272DEG 22KT 3593 9012

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
236 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W SHARON              36.23N 88.86W
07/14/2014                   WEAKLEY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 60 MPH.

&&

MRM