Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH MISSOURI AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
NOW STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM...AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 30 KTS...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS FOR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES
THROUGH 03Z FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST STORM POTENTIAL REMAINING SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AS STRONG INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL
SHEAR PERSISTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. ONCE AGAIN...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH RAIN FREE WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REDEVELOPS OVER THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY NEXT MONDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM TSRAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NE AR AROUND 21Z. THE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT KJBR BETWEEN
23-03Z. MOST MODELS HAVE CONVECTION DYING OUT AFTER SUNSET DUE TO
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN REDEVELOPING AGAIN NEAR KMEM
AROUND SUNRISE. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KJBR FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AT KMEM SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS WORDING. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 8-10 KTS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
337 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-021045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
337 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH OF A HARRISBURG
ARKANSAS TO A PARIS TENNESSEE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS SOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDSOUTH
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JAB