Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN MIDSOUTH WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE BASED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT STORM RELATIVE SHEAR TO FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. IN ISOLATED INSTANCES OF CELL
MERGERS AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS... STORMS MAY BRIEFLY PULSE TO
SEVERE LEVELS...WITH DOWNBURST WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIODS WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF DROP
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF BRINGS
THIS FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL
THURSDAY. IN ANY CASE...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
DAYS...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN BUILDING A SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH AND OHIO VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
CONCURRENTLY MAINTAINS AN INVERTED MIDLEVEL TROF/SHEAR AXIS ALONG
THE TX COAST... INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. GOING WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION YIELDS A DRIER PERIOD...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS. IF THE ECMWF HEIGHTS VERIFY...MID 90S MAY BE
COMMON ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FIRED UP IN THE SOUTHERNMOST
PORTION OF THE CWA WITH CAPE VALUES ALREADY EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG AT
ALL SITES ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
NORTHERN MS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS TODAY AS
500MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE THE GREATEST THERE. NONETHELESS...HAVE
INCLUDED A VCTS AT ALL SITES UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TODAYS CONVECTION. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
SITES.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
454 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-232230-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
454 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
CREATE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
434 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     TSTM WND GST     OLIVE BRANCH            34.95N 89.83W
06/22/2014  E70 MPH          DESOTO             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TLSJR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
446 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

MSZ002-008-222215-
TATE MS-MARSHALL MS-
446 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  EAST CENTRAL TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING NICKEL HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WAS
LOCATED OVER MARIANNA AT 445 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN MARSHALL AND TATE COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR WALL
DOXEY STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 8938 3455 8946 3466 8972 3481 8971
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 299DEG 10KT 3469 8960

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
449 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             1 NE OLIVE BRANCH       34.97N 89.82W
06/22/2014  E1.00 INCH       DESOTO             MS   PUBLIC

            ONE INCH HAIL AND DOWNED TREES REPORTED NEAR HWY 302 AND
            ALEXANDER ROAD.

&&

AJC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
456 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

MSZ017-222230-
ITAWAMBA MS-
456 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR...

  ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF FULTON AT 456 PM CDT...
MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN ITAWAMBA COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR FULTON...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO
INCLUDES BAY SPRINGS LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 8817 3423 8818 3410 8819 3408 8820
      3409 8849 3410 8852 3441 8849 3440 8817
      3429 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 354DEG 21KT 3427 8834

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