Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE MIDSOUTH...WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG ROTATION AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID EVENING
HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH MAY SEE PULSE TYPE SEVERE
WEATHER EARLY AND POTENTIALLY A STRONGER ORGANIZED LINE OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE MIDSOUTH.

SUNDAY...AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
TOMORROW...WHERE THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE
A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. TO THE NORTH A SLIGHTLY COOLER/MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY FILTER IN...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS IN
THIS AREA. THE FRONT WILL WAVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FIRST OVER ARKANSAS BY
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
GET PINCHED OFF OVER THE PLAINS AND BECOME CLOSED ON MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OVER THE OZARKS ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE
SLOWLY MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH THE LOW...COUPLED WITH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MEAN A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES. FLASH-FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT. HAVE
LEANED MORE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF ON KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LEFT
IN THE SHORTWAVE'S WAKE...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE NIGHT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (07/18Z-08/18Z)

MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OUTSIDE ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KTUP MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE
POSSIBLE 08/09Z-08/14Z. MENTIONED VCTS AT ALL THE TAFS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAY NEED TO AMEND LATER TO PUT TSRA
IN A TEMPO GROUP OR IN THE BODY OF THE FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ADDED VCTS AT
KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT KJBR FOR LATER TONIGHT.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 7-9 KTS...DECREASING A LITTLE IN THE
EVENING...BECOMING NW 7-10 KTS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-
     RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-082200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS TO THE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A
FEW TORNADOES. TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...THE THREATS WILL
REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE...AND FAR
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL
MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD REMAIN DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE
STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND FLOODING. STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...AND
LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS ARE URGED TO REPORT ANY WIND
DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TORNADO          2 SW CLAYTON            36.45N 89.28W
06/07/2014                   OBION              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR CLAYTON MOVING TOWARDS UNION CITY

&&

JPM