Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
249 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MORNING RAIN COOLED AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WAS STARTING TO MODIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTH. MESOANALYSIS
FROM SPC INDICATED MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AMOUNTS NEAR 1000 J/KG. JUST
TO OUR NORTH...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX WAS ISSUED IN
RESPONSE TO GENERATED CONVECTION WITH MIDWEST SHORTWAVE AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE TAIL END OF THIS DEVELOPING LINE
EXTENDED INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND COULD POSE A SEVERE
THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI...WHERE INCREASING
INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY
6PM. MODELS INDICATE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND INCREASED STORM
COVERAGE ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE CURRENT
SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS CROSSES THE OZARKS. NOT AS
CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SEVERE NATURE/THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IF IT
BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED WITH AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE THE CURRENT WORDING IN THE HWO.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND START ITS SLOW RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SO IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE A BIT DRIER THAN FIRST THOUGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A DIURNAL SHOWER OR STORM ON SUNDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A STRONGER
IMPULSE PROGGED TO DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING A WELL CARVED
OUT TROUGH OVER THE WEST BY MONDAY. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE ABOUT
24 HOURS SKEWED IN THEIR TIMING...THIS WAVE/ENERGY WILL DEEPEN A
SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND LIFT IT NORTHEAST TO IOWA
DRIVING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD. THE MIDSOUTH WILL REVERT BACK TO A
MORE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE/FRONT WITH A RETURN TO
STORMY WEATHER. HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF THAT THE
BRUNT OF ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TO
INCLUDE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. CONVECTION
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IS
ANTICIPATED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE MIDSOUTH
BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA AND SHRA EXPECTED DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING STARTING AS EARLY
AS 22Z. VCTS AND LOWER CIGS WILL BEGIN TO PREVAIL AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT. MADE TEMPO GROUP TO BEST TIME THE TS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EACH SITE. CIGS WILL REMAIN NEAR MVFR TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO RISE LATE MORNING. VCSH WILL PREVAIL
AT KTUP THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH CIGS POSSIBLY REACHING IFR
LEVELS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
252 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-102200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
252 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME
WEST TENNESSEE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINING PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH.

JAB

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