River Flood Warning 57, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1037 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.UPDATE...
STARTING TO SEE WHAT MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF OUR AFTERNOON
FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVER MISSOURI...SO WILL HANG ON TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY FREEZING AT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...BUT NORTH WIND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM WARMING MUCH
MORE TODAY. STAY WARM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WIND WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

CURRENTLY...BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. SOME SLEET HAS BEEN MIXED IN AROUND THE
MEMPHIS AREA. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR SINCE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
COULD BECOME SLICK AHEAD OF THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW FREEZING. LATEST HRRR PULLS THESE BANDS NE AND OUT OF
THE AREA BY 7 OR 8 AM. MEANWHILE RAIN HAS CLEARED OUT OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.

TODAY...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THIS MORNING AND SOME TEMPORARY
CLEARING WILL OCCUR. MEANWHILE MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON
BRISK NW WINDS. EXPECT COLD AIR STRATOCU TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -14C AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM 925 MB RH FIELDS
DEPICT THIS WELL. SOME FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS
AROUND 30 NEAR THE KY/MO BORDERS TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING WELL INTO THE
TEENS. WOULD GO COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EXCEPT THERE IS SOME
GRADIENT LEFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS UP A BIT. THIS
OF COURSE WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO DROPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH UPPER 20S NEAR PARIS TO MID 30S SOUTH. THIS IS PUSHING
35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 20S
TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROF.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROF MOVES THROUGH WITH
WARMER SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WHICH THOUGH PLEASANT SOUNDING IS STILL
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY. A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS
THE COLD UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOME ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETS UP AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROF PUSHES OUT OF THE SW U.S. INTO TEXAS. AS A RESULT EXPECT
WARMER AIR TO START MOVING NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. BY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE UPPER TROF WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

SJM

AVIATION...

12Z TAFS

BRIEF VFR WEATHER NOW SHIFTING INTO MEM AND JBR...AND WILL FOLLOW
SUITE THIS MORNING AT MKL AND TUP. FOR THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTING A
MVFR DECK TO REFORM...WITH LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALSO REDVELOPING.
SECOND CLEARING OF SKY COVER WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS AT 12-14KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE CYCLE.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
712 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-181515-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
712 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SJM