River Flood Warning 47, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
635 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH....

TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS MOVING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS SET UP AN AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RESULTING IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN
ARKANSAS TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE A SWLY 35 KT LLJ IS
ADVECTING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THAT BOUNDARY GENERATING
NUMEROUS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THE 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP H20 VALUE OF 2.03
INCHES SO RAINFALL RATES ARE QUITE HEAVY WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
COMMON. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ANCHORED FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUES TO BACK BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONTINUED THE WATCH THROUGH 00Z TO COVER ANY
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT AS DEPICTED IN THE 05Z HRRR. BESIDES THE
FLOODING THREAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR THE COOLER MET TEMPS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP. PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TAILING OFF FROM THE WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO THE MIDSOUTH.

TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEAR THE TN RIVER FOLLOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL BE MILD...LOWER TO MID 70S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WARM AIR SURGES
INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
26C BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
QUITE HUMID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S RESULTING IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS KICKS
IT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH...COOLER ALONG THE MO/KY
BORDER. BY THURSDAY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN
PUSHING TO THE SOUTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING
INDEPENDENCE DAY...LOOKS PRETTY SPECTACULAR ATTM. OF COURSE THAT
HAS BEEN SAID A LOT ABOUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS 6-7 DAYS OUT. THE
00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO THAT HELPS BOLSTER THE CASE
WHICH POINTS TOWARD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND DRY
N/NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
MEM...JBR...AND MKL...WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS/VIS. STORM COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE NOON WITH SITES BECOMING
PREDOMINATELY VFR. CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY EARLY
EVENING AS DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG FORMING AT MKL AND TUP. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-8 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE TO
8-16 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT MEM AND JBR. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
TO 5-10 KTS DEPENDING ON SITE BY SUNSET.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-
     DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TUNICA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-301330-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
626 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS...WEST
TENNESSEE...EXTREME NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL.

IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.

SJM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
541 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 ESE DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS  35.09N 89.92W
06/29/2014                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF A STALLED CAR AND TRAPPED DRIVER IN THE WHITE
            STATION AREA OF EAST MEMPHIS.

&&

SJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
549 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSE BARTLETT          35.18N 89.82W
06/29/2014                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            ONE TO TWO FEET OF FLOODING IN APARTMENT COMPLEX OFF
            MACON ROAD.

&&

SJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
624 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GERMANTOWN              35.09N 89.79W
06/29/2014                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE FLOODING REPORTS ACROSS SHELBY COUNTY. FLOODING
            AT PARK AVENUE AND RIDGEWAY IN EAST MEMPHIS ALONG WITH
            POPLAR AVENUE EASTBOUND NEAR KIRBY IN GERMANTOWN.
            FLOODING WAS ALSO REPORTED AT A SHOPPING CENTER AT MACON
            AND HOUSTON LEVEE IN CORDOVA. MULITPLE CARS ARE STRANDED
            IN HIGH WATER ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

SJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
654 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 ESE DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS  35.09N 89.92W
06/29/2014                   SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UP TO 6 INCHES OF WATER COVERING WILBEC STREET IN EAST
            MEMPHIS.

0523 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSE DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS  35.08N 90.02W
06/29/2014                   SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL UNDERPASSES FROM MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL TO
            MIDTOWN...ALONG I-240 TO I-40...ARE FLOODED WITH 2 TO 3
            FEET OF WATER. SEVERAL CARS ARE STALLED.

0525 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 ESE DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS  35.09N 89.92W
06/29/2014                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF A STALLED CAR AND TRAPPED DRIVER IN THE WHITE
            STATION AREA OF EAST MEMPHIS.

0532 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSE BARTLETT          35.18N 89.82W
06/29/2014                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            ONE TO TWO FEET OF FLOODING IN APARTMENT COMPLEX OFF
            MACON ROAD.

0534 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NE HERNANDO           34.86N 89.95W
06/29/2014                   DESOTO             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TO TWO FEET OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS BYHALIA ROAD WEST
            OF MALONE ROAD. ROAD IS CLOSED.

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GERMANTOWN              35.09N 89.79W
06/29/2014                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE FLOODING REPORTS ACROSS SHELBY COUNTY. FLOODING
            AT PARK AVENUE AND RIDGEWAY IN EAST MEMPHIS ALONG WITH
            POPLAR AVENUE EASTBOUND NEAR KIRBY IN GERMANTOWN.
            FLOODING WAS ALSO REPORTED AT A SHOPPING CENTER AT MACON
            AND HOUSTON LEVEE IN CORDOVA. MULITPLE CARS ARE STRANDED
            IN HIGH WATER ACROSS THE COUNTY.

0648 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SE GERMANTOWN         35.05N 89.74W
06/29/2014                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            FLOODING REPORTED AT WINCHESTER AVE AND FOREST HILL IRENE
            ROAD. CAR IS STRANDED IN THE WATER.

&&

SJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
656 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE COLLIERVILLE      35.08N 89.67W
06/29/2014                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            BERRYFIELD COVE IS FLOODED.

&&

SJM