Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Memphis, TN

067 
WGUS74 KMEG 261101
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
601 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

MSC057-261112-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-140626T1145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ITAWAMBA MS-
601 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WEST CENTRAL
ITAWAMBA COUNTY...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3433 8851 3433 8839 3424 8840 3424 8852

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1231 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/

UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATES TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
DELTA AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
AS OF 02Z RESIDES ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE CONVECTION IS
STRONGEST. GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS EVENING. UPDATED ZONES AND
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A WET PATTERN FOR LATE JUNE IS FORECAST FOR THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH
SATURDAY KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL. HOTTER
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY.

H5 HEIGHTS WERE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH A
WEAK TO MODERATE GENERALLY WESTERLY WIND FLOW. MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR COVERED THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER EAST
TX WAS MOVING EAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER THE OZARKS WAS ALSO
MOVING EAST. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST AR ARE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR. RAISED POPS TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BASED ON THE MOVEMENT
OF THESE STORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLY RAISING
THESE POPS FURTHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM TONIGHT
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
EARLIER TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SURFACE BASED CAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500
J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
STORMS IN CASE ANY DO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MEAGER.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES INTERACT WITH THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. ATTM...FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE WETTEST WITH A LITTLE STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. CONTINUED TO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
LOCATIONS WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MENTIONED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN
LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE MEMPHIS AREA WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z
ECWMF BRINGS THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY THAN EARLIER
RUNS OF THE ECWMF AND THAN DOES THE 12Z GFS...IF THE 12Z ECWMF
VERIFIES POPS WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH MS WEDNESDAY.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR 06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY NEAR MEM AND TUP. TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH FOG DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE
AT MKL...JBR...AND TUP. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT LESS THAN 5 KTS AND
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WET MICROBURSTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 26/18Z AT ALL SITES AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 27/03Z.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-271100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
346 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.