Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
336 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SECONDARY WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO TRY TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. ONGOING CONVECTION IS SLOWING THE FRONTS PROGRESS. OVER THE
LAST HOUR...IT SEEMS TO FINALLY MAKING SOME PROGRESS AS CONVECTION
HAS LIFTED OUT OF TUNICA AND ST FRANCIS COUNTIES. SKIES ARE
STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF COAHOMA AND TALLAHATCHIE
COUNTIES. A WARM AND JUICY ATMOSPHERE EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF THESE
COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS AIRMASS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
MAY INTERACT WITH THIS AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL COME LATER THIS
EVENING AS STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...WHICH IS ROUGHLY
LOCATED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER AT THIS TIME. THESE STORMS WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG...LONG TRACKED TORNADOES.
THESE STORMS WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AFTER
8-10 PM. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN IF THEY WILL MAINTAIN THERE
INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. REGARDLESS...FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AS MANY AREAS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP
OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS IT
PUSHES EAST INTO WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LINGERING
CONVECTION COULD STILL BE OCCURRING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. MEANWHILE...DRY LINE WILL HAVE ADVANCED EASTWARD
AND WILL ROUGHLY BE LOCATED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON MONDAY.
EXPECT THE DRY LINE TO BE THE SOURCE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHETHER OR
NOT THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME SEVERE WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH
THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER BY TONIGHTS CONVECTION. IF STORMS DO
BECOME SEVERE...BEST CHANCES WOULD OCCUR ACROSS AREAS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OFF AND ON TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TO COVER THE ENTIRE CWA.

ON TUESDAY...DRY LINE/FRONT MAY PUSH BACK NORTHWARD A TAD BUT WILL
REMAIN THE MAIN SOURCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AGAIN SEVERE CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER OR NOT ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MEANDER THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS COULD SKIRT NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDERNEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING VERY SLOWLY NORTH
TODAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT TSRAS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AT
KMKL...KJBR AND KMEM WITH MVFR OCNL IFR CONDS. AS THE FRONT AND
TSRAS LIFT NORTH VFR CONDS WILL RETURN TEMPORARILY BEFORE THE
NEXT LINE OF SHRAS AND TSRAS PUSH IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DRY
LINE PUSH IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR OCNL
IFR CONDS. BY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MON EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF
SHRAS AND TSRAS TO SHIFT EAST WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING. TSRAS
MAY START REDEVELOPING BY MID MORNING ON MON SO INCLUDED A VCTS
TO INDICATE THAT POSSIBILITY.

SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING THIS EVENING TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...AND SSW BY MON MORNING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
     TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
344 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-280845-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
344 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDSOUTH. A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS
ALL OF EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND THOSE PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO CHARLESTON MISSISSIPPI. THE MODERATE RISK
AREA INCLUDES THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS...JONESBORO...AND CLARKSDALE
MISSISSIPPI. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.
TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI INTO PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR. TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG ESPECIALLY IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL THE MIDSOUTH.

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

KRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
247 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             CALHOUN CITY            33.86N 89.31W
04/27/2014  M0.88 INCH       CALHOUN            MS   911 CALL CENTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL FROM CALHOUN CITY TO DERMA AND VARDAMAN.

&&

ZEI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
433 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     HAIL             THORN                   33.94N 89.10W
04/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       CHICKASAW          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

CJC