Flash Flood Warning 128, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM SAVANNAH TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND A
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT ALONG
WITH A RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING
AND AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TO THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAINLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SEEM REASONABLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS BY NEXT SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

A COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH JBR AND WILL BE THROUGH MKL AND
MEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS
NOT LIVED UP TO ITS POTENTIAL SO FAR...BUT FEEL AT LEAST VCTS IS
WARRANTED. WILL REMOVE TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MKL WHERE STORMS ARE MORE NUMEROUS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE NEAR
THE FRONT...SHIFTING NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 10 KTS. CONVECTION WILL YIELD TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AT TUP
AFTER SUNSET...BUT OTHERWISE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

PATCHY MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE AT MKL AND TUP TONIGHT...BUT WINDS
SHOULD HELP VIS UP SOMEWHAT.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
403 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-071115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
403 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40 THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SJM