Flash Flood Warning 115, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
646 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF NORTHWEST TN.
A FEW OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER NORTHEAST AR. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS NORTH MS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY MOIST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TN INTO
NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL AR. TRIMMED THE POPS BACK A LITTLE
ELSEWHERE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL PLACE THE MIDSOUTH IN INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH SETTING THE STAGE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF TERRIFIC SUMMERTIME WEATHER. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST
TN INTO NORTHEAST MS. MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THIS
REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF TUPELO. THIS SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED ACROSS
MORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...RAIN FREE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TERRIFIC TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN THIS SUMMER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S AND 60S.

SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE SLOWER IN PUSHING
THE DRY AND STABLE AIR OUT OF THE REGION...THUS SLOWED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE INCREASING POPS SOME.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENTLY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY TO THE SW
THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY...AND COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES.
THUS HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS AT ALL FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT CIGS AND VSBYS IN VFR CATEGORY FOR NOW AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TEMPO FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMKL AND KTUP LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO SOME
RADIATION FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
349 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-121100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
349 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PLEASE
RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OR FLASH FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.

JCL