Winter Storm Watch 1, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Crane County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
5-7mb/3hr isallobaric high associated with Arctic airmass will be in
the EC NM plains around 03Z/Tue and into SE NM by 09Z/Tue. This
supports the initial wind shift arriving across the NW-NE CWFA btwn
01Z-02Z and to near/just s of I-20 before 06Z. Post-frontal low
clouds will develop quickly as warmer air over-rides the initially
shallow cold airmass. In fact isentropic lift will increase thru a
layer btwn I285-300 into Tues night/Wed AM. Lift is evident and
persistent in said layers as seen in OMEGA fields along the
isentropic surfaces. Moisture profile above the lift is rather dry
and even though there is some lift in the 7h-5h layer thru 00Z/Thur
its not very impressive and we're doubtful that any top/down phase
change will be occur thru 00Z Thur. This makes the precip type/phase
easier and GFS/NAM12 both suggest FZDZ/FG are most likely. In
general with an Arctic airmass the dwpnts usually decrease with time
and this is seen the soundings, so this will tend to mitigate the
opportunity for ice accums, especially across the nrn CWFA after 18Z
Wed. Wed looks to be the coldest day, lows in the teens and lower
20s Wed AM and highs 25-30 Wed PM. There looks to be a lull in
precip potential 21Z/Wed-06Z/Thur. Around 06Z/Thur the GFS/NAM12
are suggesting that minor shrtwv trofs will start to track across
the area (typical in modestly long fetch of sw mid level flow).
One such shrtwv trof may result in SHSN across the cntrl/e PB Thur
AM followed by a more definitive shrtwv trof Thur PM, which too
could result in a narrow band of SHSN/RA across PB. For now we
will issue a Winter Weather Watch from 00Z/Wed-00Z/Thur for a mix,
but mostly FZDZ/FG and total ice accums to near .15", including
all areas except for the far s. There's concern for the e slopes
of mtns to be embedded within low vsbys assocd with FZFG/DZ,
including the I-10/20 split and even I-10 e thru FST. This WSW will
be more "impact based" considering increased travel in/around New
Yrs Eve/Day verses the strict defined criteria and this being the
first real potential for ice on roads this winter for our CWFA. A
NPW high wind watch will also be issued for GDP Pass Tue night/Wed
AM. An additional WSW may be needed Thur AM-PM. A tight thermal
gradient will make it hard to determine phase change delineation
line. The srn branch of the split flow is slow to move and the
upper low will still be near the area Fri. Precip will again be
possible Fri PM, but mostly liquid. Upper low will move e Sat with
cold front following in its wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 26  29  20  25  /   0  30  50  30
BIG SPRING TX              29  31  20  26  /   0  40  50  30
CARLSBAD NM                27  31  23  27  /   0  20  50  40
DRYDEN TX                  36  41  32  33  /   0  30  50  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           28  33  20  29  /   0  30  50  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          24  26  14  21  /   0  20  40  40
HOBBS NM                   25  29  21  26  /   0  30  50  30
MARFA TX                   24  45  19  34  /   0  10  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    25  29  19  25  /   0  30  50  30
ODESSA TX                  26  29  20  27  /   0  30  50  30
WINK TX                    28  32  28  29  /   0  30  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER STORM WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend
     Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

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