Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
734 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel Severe Thunderstorm Watch # 526.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Severe thunderstorms have moved east of the forecast area,
therefore have cancelled Severe Thunderstorm Watch # 526. Showers
and thunderstorms may redevelop overnight as an ua trough
translates eastward over the region. However, think instability
will be lacking for additional severe storms.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern over the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting terminals tonight through much of Saturday morning.
Currently have a cold front pushing south through the region this
evening with gusty northerly winds in its wake. It has already moved
through KHOB and KMAF and is nearly on top of KINK and KCNM. The
front should then reach KPEQ and KFST over the next hour or two. A
few thunderstorms remain over the eastern Permian Basin but are
moving east rather quickly so terminals will not be affected by this
activity.

MVFR cigs currently being reported to the north of the region and
should begin to fill in later tonight. Think cigs will drop to IFR
early Saturday morning for at least KHOB and KMAF but may need to
be added to other sites as well. Have flight conditions improving
around 11/16-18Z but may have been too conservative and subsequent
shifts may need to make adjustments. Gave it my best guess as far
as timing of MVFR/IFR affecting terminals given the expected
scenario but will have to depend on trends and amend if/when
needed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH # 526, IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Current observations show north winds have progressed as far
southward as Andrews and Martin counties.  This is likely the result
of outflow from convection that occurred overnight and earlier this
morning north of our area.  Currently, the actual cold front is
located farther north over portions of the South Plains.  Models are
in good agreement with the progression of this cold front into the
Permian Basin early this evening, probably reaching Midland/Odessa
area between 6 and 7 pm.  The front will continue to make its way
southward through the evening and overnight across most of the area
east of the mountains.

Over the eastern Permian Basin and Rolling Plains, afternoon surface
based CAPE values ahead of this front are expected to be in the
1800-2400 J/KG range, along with lift indices around -7 and 0-6 km
bulk shear values on the order of 45 knots. Thus, current SPC Day 1
slight risk areas for severe weather look reasonable to us as well.
Thus, we have updated the gridded forecast for the possibility of
late afternoon and evening severe weather along and ahead of the
frontal boundary with the main threat being hail.  As the evening
progresses, severe weather will also be possible across portions of
the Lower Trans Pecos as well.

In addition to the potential for severe weather, low cloud
development is expected behind the front.  This cloud cover is
expected to persist on Saturday with mostly cloudy conditions
expected across the Permian Basin.

As an upper level storm system slides across the Northern and
Central Plains on Sunday, associated surface low pressure
development north of the area will allow for south to southwest
return flow across the area.  As the upper system slides rapidly
east of the area, another cold front is expected to move into the
area early Monday.  Unlike the current cold front, the frontal
passage on Monday looks to be a dry one.  Models show much drier air
moving into the area behind the Monday cold front, more in line with
what we are normally accustomed to in our area this time of year.

High temperatures will be a roller coaster ride this week.  Cool
temperatures are expected tomorrow behind the front under cloudy
conditions.  A much warmer day is anticipated on Sunday before
cooler temperatures arrive again on Monday.  Finally, a warming
trend is expected starting Tuesday and continuing into the latter
part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 49  68  52  88  /  30  10   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              50  67  52  87  /  50  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                48  72  50  93  /  20   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  61  72  59  88  /  30  20  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  70  59  94  /  30  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  70  56  82  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   46  70  49  86  /  20   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   48  74  45  85  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    51  69  53  88  /  40  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  52  70  53  88  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    53  75  54  96  /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

99/99

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1243 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-111745-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1243 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014 /1143 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

FURTHER WEST IN THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...TRANS PECOS...AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
553 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

TXZ053-102330-
MITCHELL-
553 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
EASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF CHAMPION CREEK
RESERVOIR AT 553 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE
HAIL AND WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3250 10079 3250 10067 3218 10068 3219 10080
      3227 10088
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 210DEG 21KT 3227 10073

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             N LEES                  32.08N 101.49W
10/10/2014  E0.75 INCH       GLASSCOCK          TX   PUBLIC

&&

AKL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
613 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

TXZ052-053-063-110015-
GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
613 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHEASTERN GLASSCOCK...SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD AND SOUTHERN MITCHELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FORSAN AT 613 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH...
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU
CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 10077 3208 10126 3200 10126 3197 10141
      3215 10148 3225 10116 3224 10085 3217 10067
      3211 10065 3210 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 261DEG 33KT 3209 10133

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
721 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             7 S LORAINE             32.31N 100.71W
10/10/2014  E1.25 INCH       MITCHELL           TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

&&

AKL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
738 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

TXZ075-081-082-110145-
PECOS-TERRELL-BIG BEND AREA-
738 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
EAST CENTRAL BREWSTER...SOUTH CENTRAL PECOS AND WEST CENTRAL TERRELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF LONGFELLOW AT 738
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK
SAFE SHELTER NOW.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3031 10260 3030 10230 2996 10236 3011 10283
      3020 10284
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 283DEG 20KT 3013 10272

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