Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
703 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Sent a quick update to expire the Heat Advisory. Otherwise, the
current forecast looks good and no other changes were made.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Cold front will
continue sagging into the region overnight, keeping sfc flow E-SE.
Buffer soundings keep stratus from forming overnight, but develop
a widespread cu field by late morning/early afternoon, w/bases 5-9
kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A outflow boundary from overnight convection over the TX Panhandle
has made its way to the Pecos River early this afternoon. Meanwhile,
the actual cold front continues to move south across the S TX
Plains. Both boundaries will likely serve as foci for thunderstorm
development later this afternoon into the overnight. The best chance
still appears to be from the Upper Trans Pecos into western
portions of the Permian Basin. Strong sfc heating and ample low
level moisture will allow CAPE values to climb above 2000 J/kg. 0-6
km bulk shear is not all that impressive this afternoon(~20 kts
western Permian Basin and ~30 kts in SE NM), but should be enough
for a few strong to severe storms. The main threats will be limited
to large hail and damaging winds. Should storms concentrate along
one of the boundaries, heavy rain may also become a threat.

The front will hang up across the area Wednesday and combine with
numerous outflow boundaries to keep the chance of rain in the
forecast. The main focus will be across the northern Permian Basin
and higher terrain. The upper ridge builds back in late week with
warming mid level temps and subsidence helping to decrease rain
chances for most of us except the higher terrain.

Temperatures have already made it into the 100's along the Rio
Grande so will let the heat advisory go until 7 PM. The front along
with clouds and precip will keep temperatures below average across
the region through Thursday. Temperatures will rise back to near
normal into the holiday weekend as the upper ridge builds in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  89  68  92  /  40  40  30  10
BIG SPRING TX              71  90  71  92  /  30  40  40  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  91  66  93  /  50  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  73  93  71  94  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  92  69  93  /  30  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  85  63  87  /  50  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   66  87  66  90  /  60  40  30  10
MARFA TX                   61  86  59  85  /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  91  69  93  /  30  30  30  10
ODESSA TX                  71  91  69  93  /  30  30  30  10
WINK TX                    74  94  71  96  /  40  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

44/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
216 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-021915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
216 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014 /116 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
THE UPPER TRANS PECOS.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.  HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
LEAD TO LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.  A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF AN ANDREWS TO BALMORHEA LINE.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
735 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014

NMZ028-TXZ058-020100-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
635 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON...NORTHWESTERN REEVES AND SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT/800 PM CDT/...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MALAGA AT 635
PM MDT/735 PM CDT/...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3193 10398 3197 10431 3224 10420 3222 10401
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 004DEG 6KT 3213 10413

HUFFMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
803 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014

NMZ028-020130-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
703 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
SOUTHEASTERN EDDY COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM MDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MALAGA AT 703
PM MDT...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3201 10417 3235 10418 3236 10376 3200 10375
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 077DEG 4KT 3218 10396

HUFFMAN