Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
West to northwesterly aloft will continue through the weekend.
Lacking decent upper level ridging, very intense daytime heating
(above normal temperatures) along and east of a dryline should
allow isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to develop most
afternoons and evenings through Sunday across mainly west Texas
and the mountains extreme southwest Texas.

By next Monday through Thursday upper level ridging is forecast
to strengthen from the southern Rockies to the Gulf Coast. This
will turn the mid level flow to the northeast and east and
increase subsidence across the forecast area and diminish the
threat of convection. The exception could be southeast New Mexico
on Monday and Tuesday where mid level flow off the New Mexico
mountains and could steer storms into those areas. Temperatures
should continue above normal next week with upper ridging in
place.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A few locations over the southeast New Mexico Plains will see
minimum RHs near 15 percent this afternoon, however 20 foot wind
speeds should stay below 20 mph sustained.  Recovery tonight will be
good to excellent over all but the Guadalupe Mountains.  The base of
an upper level storm system will pass over New Mexico Friday.
Increasing mid level winds and hot temperatures will result in gusty
southwest 20 foot winds Friday afternoon, especially over the
Guadalupe Mountains and portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.
Since minimum afternoon RHs will drop to 10 to 15 percent in these
areas, will issue a Red Flag Warning from 27/19Z until 28/02Z.
There has been some greenup in these areas, but there are still dry
fuels and the Fire Danger Rating will be high to very high.  A
dryline will sharpen up over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos
Friday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms possible along it.
Recovery Friday night will be poor along and west of a Maljamar,
Balmorhea and Presidio line.

The upper storm system will move east of the region Saturday.  It
will still be hot and dry west of the dryline with minimum afternoon
RHs dropping to 10 to 15 percent along and west of a Gail, Midland,
Alpine and Presidio line.  However, 20 foot wind speeds will stay
below 20 mph sustained for the most part.  Recovery Saturday night
will be similar to Friday night.  The dryline will stay further west
Sunday afternoon with minimum RHs of 10 to 15 percent expected along
and west of a Hobbs, Wink, Marfa and Presidio line.  20 foot wind
speeds do not appear strong enough for critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...With summer upon us locations in West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico are approaching...or are at the hottest
climatological normals for the year. The following is the NCDC
climatological normals for the hottest maximum temperatures during
the year.

Location         Temp    Start Date    End Date
--------         ----    ----------    --------
Midland Intl AP   95     June 28       August 9
Odessa            96     June 19       June 25
Andrews           95     June 15       August 11
Seminole          94     July 1        July 10
Snyder            94     July 6        August 14
Fort Stockton     95     June 20       July 3
Alpine            91     June 15       June 20
Hobbs             95     June 13       July 20
Carlsbad          96     June 23       July 1

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  69  99  70  /  20  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              94  69  96  74  /  10  10  20  20
CARLSBAD NM               100  67 105  69  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  96  74  99  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  72 100  73  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          93  69  95  67  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   95  65 100  66  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   90  57  94  60  /  30  30  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    94  72  99  74  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  95  71  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    97  73 102  72  /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

67/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
144 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-271845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
144 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 /1244 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU INTO
THE PRESIDIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MORE ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN.  A FEW STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.  DUE TO
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AIR, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A DRYLINE
STRETCHING OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN, STOCKTON PLATEAU, LOWER TRANS
PECOS AND INTO THE BIG BEND REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL DAMAGING WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
315 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

TXZ074-262100-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
315 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER AND SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 400
PM CDT...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAMP MITRE
PEAK AND 4 MILES WEST OF INDIAN LODGE STATE PARK AT 314 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3052 10356 3040 10373 3046 10407 3059 10420
      3080 10387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 326DEG 3KT 3053 10371

HUFFMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
353 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

TXZ058-074-075-262130-
PECOS-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS
PECOS-
353 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS...NORTH CENTRAL BREWSTER...SOUTH CENTRAL
REEVES AND WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STAR MOUNTAIN
AT 353 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3095 10340 3049 10335 3052 10378 3080 10383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 268DEG 25KT 3067 10363

HUFFMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
405 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

NMZ028-TXZ058-059-262130-
LOVING-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
405 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON...NORTHWESTERN LOVING...NORTHWESTERN REEVES
AND SOUTHEASTERN EDDY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT/330 PM MDT/...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF RED BLUFF
RESERVOIR AT 405 PM CDT/305 PM MDT/...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS CROSSING U.S. HWY 285.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 10381 3189 10374 3184 10410 3206 10416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 247DEG 16KT 3201 10402

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
430 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

TXZ058-074-075-262215-
PECOS-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
430 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS...NORTH CENTRAL BREWSTER...SOUTH CENTRAL
REEVES AND WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOVEY AT 429
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR
55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 10325 3065 10309 3058 10356 3079 10365
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 259DEG 22KT 3073 10347

HUFFMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
513 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

TXZ074-075-081-262245-
PECOS-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-BIG BEND AREA-
513 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
CENTRAL PECOS AND NORTH CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES WEST OF SIERRA MADERA AT
512 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3072 10271 3028 10305 3060 10334 3080 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 284DEG 26KT 3067 10312

HUFFMAN