Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
939 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to increase PoPs over southeast New mexico, south through
the Davis Mountains overnight. Also, will increase PoPs over the
Lower Trans Pecos.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection is persisting along and east of a surface trough over New
Mexico within southeasterly upslope flow regime.  Instability is
slow to wane due to copious amounts of moisture, and some mid level
support ahead of a broad upper trough over the Baja Peninsula and
the Mexican state of Sonora.  There has been a gradual downward
trend in convection, and see no reason this will not continue
through 20/06Z.

Further east, a Mesoscale Convective System (MCV) is noted on
regional radar near Del Rio, and is moving slowly northwestward, in
part due to the mentioned ua trough over Baja/ Sonora.  After
further collaboration with NESDIS, have decided to increase PoPs
over the southeasternmost portions of the forecast area to likely
overnight.  Think convection will flourish along and east of the
center of the northwest bound MCV as it interacts with a H85 low
level jet, as it did last night.  Since precipitable water will rise
to around 1.75 inches in these areas, heavy rainfall on the order of
2-3 inches per hour will be possible, so will include mention of
heavy rainfall and update the Hazardous Weather Outlook to include
localized flash flooding.  Eastern Pecos and northern Terrell
counties had at least 2-3 inches of rainfall a few days ago, so the
soil is still wet, and the possibility of flooding will be even
greater in these areas.  Will send an update shortly for these
changes, and pass on to the incoming shift the potential for heavy
rainfall into the Big Bend region through Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  86  65  90  /  30   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              68  87  68  90  /  10   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                66  89  66  93  /  30   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  71  87  72  89  /  70  40  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  86  66  88  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  82  61  88  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   65  87  61  91  /  40   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   57  79  57  82  /  40  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  86  67  89  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  67  86  67  90  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    68  90  69  92  /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

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