Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions should remain VFR for all TAF locations through the period.
Have a few lingering storms from CNM to E38 but expect these to die
out in the next hour or two.  Not expecting as much low clouds in
the Permian Basin Sunday morning as past few days... only mentioned
SCT stratus at MAF around sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over West Texas, courtesy
of a west coast trough trying to muscle in thru Baja.  Yesterday, a
MCS developed in N central NM and moved SSE, but died out before
making it into SE NM.  Current models attempt to replicate this
scenario tonight, but suggest the MCS might make it a little further
SE.  Otherwise, at the sfc, a trough extended from SW NM ESE down
into the Big Bend, and will serve as the focus of isolated
convection for the next couple of days as abundant diurnal heating
combines w/minor disturbances moving down thru the ridge.  Sfc
trough is forecast to orient more N-S Sunday and Monday, and remain
over the western half of the CWA.  Forecast soundings look too warm
for much hail development, but inverted-V profiles suggest strong
winds will remain a threat.  In addition, KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a
PWAT of 1.31"...about 130% of normal.  Given nil steering flow under
the ridge, heavy rain will be possible as well.

Models dissolve the sfc trough by Tuesday and begin moving the upper
ridge NNW over the next week to the Four Corners vicinity.  While
this will spare West Texas/SE NM the worst of the heat, the thermal
ridge will still push H85 temps towards 30C, for widespread
triple-digits by Tuesday or so, and continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
106 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-201815-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
106 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014 /1206 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
736 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NMZ029-033-200100-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-
636 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
CENTRAL LEA COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF LOVINGTON AT 635
PM MDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN... DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE
SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3328 10374 3303 10324 3278 10351 3293 10376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 211DEG 10KT 3299 10357

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
907 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NMZ029-200230-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-
807 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF CROSSROADS AT 806
PM MDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3328 10306 3326 10377 3340 10374 3340 10373
      3344 10373 3357 10370 3358 10352 3357 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 343DEG 30KT 3350 10350