Red Flag Warning 23, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

011 
WWUS84 KMAF 271927
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
227 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE... HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR
LESS...AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

.A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING
IN GUSTY WEST WINDS AND INCREASING DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

NMZ114-115-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-080-258-
280100-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-140328T0100Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ-GAINES-DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-
ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-MARFA PLATEAU-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
227 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014 /127 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2014/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS...

* WIND...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE
  AFTERNOON.

* HUMIDITY...10 TO 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE
SPARKS. ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW
QUICKLY INTO DANGEROUS WIND- DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

&&

$$


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MAF (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
348 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Broad upper trough swinging across the plains today will push a
Pacific front through the area.  This upper trough will be
reinforced with a shortwave trough early Friday with a high pressure
ridge beginning to build in later in the day.  The ridge will remain
over the region though Sunday with the next upper trough staying
well to the north of the region.  A stronger upper trough will
affect the area Wednesday/Thursday of next week... however until
then look for above normal temperatures.

This morning have low clouds covering the eastern half of CWA with
strong southerly flow... LLJ gusting up to 30kts.  Dewpts range
from the 50s east to the teens in the west.  As of 08z dryline
sitting west of HOB to PEQ line.  This low level moisture will get
quickly blown east today.  A Pacific front will move east today with
a gusty west wind behind it.  Expect surface winds of 20 to 30 mph
across much of the region... higher for the mountains.  Will
continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains
today.  Dewpts will fall to the 20s across the east by midday.  Dry
and windy conditions will spread across the area leading to critical
fire wx conditions today.

On Friday the wind will come around to the NW as a weak front/pre
frontal trough moves through but should only be a little cooler than
day before.  The wind goes ahead and veers around to the east early
Saturday as rest of front backdoors in with temps a few degrees
cooler.  Wind returns to the SE by late in the day as new leeside
trough develops.

Temperatures will be warm overall for the coming week with lows in
the 40s and 50s and highs in the 70s and 80s.  Rain chances too low
to mention rest of the week but long range qpf does develop a little
over the east the middle of next week so something to hope for.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline extends from southeastern New Mexico into the Big Bend
this morning. An upper level trough moving into the Central Plains
today will increase westerly winds and push the dryline into west
central Texas this afternoon, spreading dry air across the region.
Minimum afternoon humidities will drop to near 10 percent, but it is
the winds that could reach sustained speeds of 30 mph with gusts to
40 mph that will be the driver of erratic fire behavior today. The
Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. There
will be no wind direction changes in the dry air with a westerly
direction being very consistent today. Overnight recovery will be
fair with more dry air expected tomorrow though winds should
generally hold to 15 to 20 mph, just below the threshhold for
critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  48  78  43  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              81  50  79  45  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                81  50  77  43  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  87  54  87  52  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  53  82  50  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  46  69  44  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   77  47  76  41  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   74  38  71  34  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    80  49  79  44  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  80  50  79  43  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    83  49  80  43  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 8 PM
     CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area.

&&

10/72

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
226 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-271930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
226 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2014 /126 PM MDT WED MAR 26 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS... SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...
AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TRANS PECOS. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT. HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THROUGH THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
AS WELL AS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ADJACENT TO
THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS EAST THROUGH THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY... A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND