Red Flag Warning 18, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

674 
WWUS84 KMAF 171945
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MDT/2 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT/7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 20 FOOT WINDS AT
OR ABOVE 20 MPH...HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS...AND HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN AND THE HIGHWAY
54 CORRIDOR...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT TUESDAY MORNING TO
8 PM MDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR 20 FOOT WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20
MPH...HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...

.SNOW YESTERDAY HAS CAUSED HUMIDITIES TO DROP SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
THOUGH BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
POOR RECOVERY TONIGHT...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A DAY OF
DRYING WILL CAUSE HUMIDITIES TO DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT TUESDAY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS CREATE WORSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

NMZ114-TXZ258-180745-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.A.0015.140318T1600Z-140319T0200Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140318T0000Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
145 PM MDT MON MAR 17 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE GUADALUPE 
MOUNTAINS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. WEST 25
  TO 35 MPH TUESDAY.

* HUMIDITY...12 TO 15 PERCENT TODAY...5 TO 15 PERCENT TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE
SPARKS. ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW
QUICKLY INTO DANGEROUS WIND- DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

TXZ057-180000-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140318T0000Z/
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
245 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH. 

* HUMIDITY...5 TO 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE
SPARKS. ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW
QUICKLY INTO DANGEROUS WIND- DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

&&

$$


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MAF (ALL LOWER CASE)

333 
WWUS84 KMAF 180016
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
716 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT/10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR 20 FOOT WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 MPH...HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR
LESS...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN
AND THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT TUESDAY MORNING TO
8 PM MDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR 20 FOOT WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 MPH...
HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...

.STRONG RED FLAG WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN
REISSUED THROUGH MID EVENING. THERE WILL BE POOR RECOVERY
TONIGHT... THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A DAY OF DRYING WILL CAUSE
HUMIDITIES TO DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
CREATE WORSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY.

NMZ114-TXZ258-180300-
/O.EXP.KMAF.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140318T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.W.0019.140318T0016Z-140318T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0015.140318T1600Z-140319T0200Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
616 PM MDT MON MAR 17 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY 
AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND HIGH
FIRE DANGER FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA HAS ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEST 25 TO 35
  MPH TUESDAY.

* HUMIDITY...10 TO 15 PERCENT INTO THIS EVENING...5 TO 15 PERCENT
  TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE
SPARKS. ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW
QUICKLY INTO DANGEROUS WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

&&

$$

TXZ057-180300-
/O.EXP.KMAF.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140318T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.W.0019.140318T0016Z-140318T0300Z/
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
716 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE VAN HORN 
AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA HAS ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 

* HUMIDITY...5 TO 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE
SPARKS. ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW
QUICKLY INTO DANGEROUS WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

&&

$$


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MAF (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
435 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the exiting upper trough approaching the Texas Gulf
Coast, leaving West Texas/SE NM under meridional flow aloft.  Good
radiational cooling and light winds are allowing overnight mins to
approach freezing, especially NE.

In the PacNW, a second upper trough is making landfall, and sfc
analysis shows leeside trough development already preceding it on
the Front Range.  This is forecast to develop further south today,
backing sfc flow around to the SW.  This will allow no moisture
return to the area, w/all models advecting in even drier air than
present as a result.  Critical fire wx remains a concern, as
discussed below.  NAM Forecast soundings at KGDP mix out to above
H7, where 35kt westerly flow is forecast by late afternoon, aided by
a weak mtn wave.  Thus, a marginal high wind event will be possible
in the Guadalupes this afternoon.

Otherwise, this downslope flow and sunny skies will result in a
quick rebound on temps over yesterday, back to above-normal by this
afternoon.  Tuesday, PacNW trough arrives in the Central Plains, and
tries to drive a cold front into the area, but this stalls
diurnally, before bringing in significantly cooler air overnight
into Wednesday.  Return flow quickly replaces the front Wednesday
night, w/temps bounce back to normal Thursday, then well-above
normal Friday, which should be the warmest day this forecast under
zonal flow aloft, w/a hint of weak ridging.

Friday night, an upper trough is forecast to move into the MS
Valley, dropping a second cold front into the region and knocking
temps back to normal thru the weekend.  Models hint at a possible
dryline event Sunday/Monday, and this looks to be our next shot at
rain.  We'll keep grids dry for now.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures this afternoon will warm to slightly above normal
values with breezy southwest winds.  These southwest winds will
bring in dry air with relative humidity values at or below 15
percent across a large part of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.
Winds will generally be below 20 mph except across the Guadalupe
Mountains and Van Horn and the Highway 54 Corridor where the surface
pressure gradient will be stronger.  For this reason, have upgraded
the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the Guadalupe
Mountains and Culberson County.  Winds will be near 20 mph across
southeast New Mexico so near critical fire weather conditions will
be present there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 76  43  76  37  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              74  44  75  39  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                78  42  74  40  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  75  46  85  46  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           79  49  79  41  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  44  69  38  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   74  40  70  34  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   69  32  72  31  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  40  77  37  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  76  45  77  37  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    81  41  80  38  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

80/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
348 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-180900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
348 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014 /248 AM MDT MON MAR 17 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
SO A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN AND THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR AREA. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND