Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

998 
WWUS84 KMAF 202102
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
302 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER...HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR
LESS...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...

.A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR HAS DROPPED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 PERCENT CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.

NMZ114-115-TXZ045-050-051-058>063-067>070-075-082-258-210000-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140221T0000Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ-GAINES-ANDREWS-MARTIN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-PECOS-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
302 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014 /202 PM MST THU FEB 20 2014/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE 
TRANS PECOS...

* WIND...20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY.

* HUMIDITY...5 TO 10 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE
SPARKS. ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW
QUICKLY INTO DANGEROUS WIND- DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

&&

$$


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MAF (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
403 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough crossing the Rockies this morning and will swing across
the central plains today driving a front through the area.  After it
passes a slight ridging will build in from the west with the flow
becoming zonal across the country.  Next week the ridge will
strengthen over the west with the region remaining on the eastern
edge.

Have a surface trough/dryline this morning separating the very moist
eastern CWA from the dry rest of the area with moisture slowly
seeping back to the west.  Dewpts in the 40s have made it as far
west as Midland this before beginning to decrease again.

Wind speeds in the Guadalupes have dropped off so went ahead and
cancelled the high wind warning a few hour early.  Will have very
dry air over the region today with some dewpts below zero.  This
will allow parts of the area to see the first freeze tonight in
nearly a week.  Abundant high clouds streaming up from the Pacific
will drift off east during the day.

Temperatures will continue to be on a seesaw of warm and cool over
the coming week as the parade of fronts continues.  After a very
warm day yesterday a cold front will blow through this morning
allowing for highs only in the 60s.  Expect a gusty NW wind today.
Temps quickly recover into the 70s Friday as a south wind returns but
the next front will move down into the area Sunday.  Models have
been having a little difficulty handling this 2nd front but currently
push it all the way up against the mountains.  The front lifts out
Monday but returns again late Tuesday.  This will result in a series
of days going warm cool warm cool.  Will get a little break mid week
before another front moves through Friday.

Rain not expected for the coming week.  For those that like
something to hope for GFS does develop some precip over the area in
the 228 to 240 hr periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Shortwave trough pushing southeast out of the southern Rockies into
the plains today will deepen a surface low over Oklahoma today,
driving a cold front through southeast New Mexico and southwest
Texas. Though afternoon high temperatures will be much closer
to seasonal norms this afternoon, advection and subsidence of very
dry air across the area will drive dewpoints into single digits to
negative single digits this afternoon resulting in relative
humidities mostly in the 5% to 10% range, except for areas east of a
Lamesa to Big Spring line, where better cold air advection will
yield relative humidities closer to 15%.

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible across the region
along and just behind the cold front as it passes through the area.
Sustained wind speeds above 20 mph will be more persistent in the
Guadalupe Mountains as well as generally east of the mountains from
mid-day through late afternoon.  Winds in this area will be enhanced
by stronger low  level height gradients.  Mixing down of stronger
winds will be aided by strong heating and subsidence behind
departing wave. With very low relative humidities and persistent
20-foot winds of 20 mph or greater, a Red Flag Warning will be
required over southeast New Mexico zones as well as southwest Texas
zones east of the mountains excluding the northeast Permian Basin.
This afternoon, RFTI will be highest over the southern Permian Basin
southward through Terrell County.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  30  73  41  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              64  34  74  41  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                67  31  78  43  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  80  37  78  44  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  39  78  48  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  35  69  47  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  29  72  39  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   67  23  71  32  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  31  73  41  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  67  32  74  41  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    68  29  78  40  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning to 6 PM
     CST /5 PM MST/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Crane...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...
     Ward...Winkler.

&&

05/72

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1047 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-210500-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1047 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014 /947 PM MST WED FEB 19 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
FOR WEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRODUCING WINDS EXCEEDING 20
MPH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
REMAIN DRY...RESULTING IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND