Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

976 
WGUS74 KMAF 120730
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

TXC003-115-165-317-120915-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0043.000000T0000Z-140912T0915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DAWSON-GAINES-MARTIN-ANDREWS-
230 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN ANDREWS...NORTHWESTERN MARTIN...EASTERN GAINES AND
DAWSON COUNTIES...

AT 227 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL LOCATED FROM
22 MILES SOUTH OF LAMESA TO 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAMESA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...TENMILE...KLONDIKE...LAMESA...LAMESA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...
KEY...ARVANA...PATRICIA AND HANCOCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3275 10170 3227 10198 3228 10242 3296 10222
      3296 10170

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1232 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to continue overnight
along and north of a Carlsbad to Midland to Big Spring line.
Additional storms are possible further south, so have included
TSRA at all area TAF sites overnight and through much of this
morning. VFR conditions will prevail through most of the night,
but do expect ceilings to develop and lower to MVFR in the 12/10Z
to 12/15Z time frame. A strong cold front will move rapidly south
into the area, affecting KHOB as early as 12/15Z and moving
through KFST by 12/20Z. Expect ceilings to lower to low MVFR,
along with MVFR visibility in light to moderate rain and fog. Low
ceilings will likely be present at most TAF sites more often than
not through Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
for the next 24 hours with reduced visibilities and gusty winds in
and near the storms.  Low ceilings are expected across the area by
09z and are expected to be even lower by 12z.  There will be some
improvement in ceilings Friday morning and afternoon but expect at
least MVFR conditions to prevail.  A cold front will begin moving
into the area between 18z to 21z with gusty and elevated winds out
of the northeast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014/

Much cooler temperatures have prevailed today behind a weak cold
front which has settled along the I-10 corridor. Another, stronger
cold front is on the way tomorrow with more widespread showers and
thunderstorms, some with heavy rain.

Showers and storms are beginning to develop from the Davis Mountains
east to Big Lake along yesterdays cold front. This area of storms is
expected to expand north this evening and tonight, encompassing most
of the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico by morning. Heavy rain
will be possible with these storms as PWAT values increase over 1.5"
and Gulf moisture rides up and over the cooler air behind the front.
This area of rain will likely combine with more storms moving south
across E NM and the TX Panhandle tomorrow morning. Some uncertainty
remains for which locations will receive the heaviest rain, however
the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM appear to have the best shot. These
areas received several inches of rain last weekend and this looks
possible once again. Will continue the mention of locally heavy rain
in the forecast and issue a Flash Flood Watch through Saturday
morning. This watch may need to be expanded east with time, but this
is the area we are most confident about now.

A potent shortwave over Montana will send a strong cold front south
tonight, reaching our region Friday morning. Snow is being reported
behind this front as far south as Nebraska and northern Colorado.
High temperatures will be reached early in the day as readings fall
quickly behind the front. Most locations north of the I-20 corridor
will be in the 50s by afternoon with a strong northerly wind. We are
also looking at our first gap wind event of the season for Guadalupe
Pass as intense pressure rises arrive behind the front. Will issue a
High Wind Watch for GDP Friday night into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will continue to fall Friday night, bottoming out in
the upper 40s and 50s across the area Saturday morning. We will
likely only warm into the 60s and low 70s Saturday afternoon as the
clouds stick around with areas of light drizzle possible. By Sunday,
a disturbance over Mexico begins to shift north with rain again
overspreading the area from the lower Trans Pecos into the southern
Permian Basin. The extended remains more uncertain as an upper ridge
builds to our west and we transition to northwesterly flow aloft. A
couple of the models bring a front in by midweek so more rain is
possible as temps stay near normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Friday night FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday evening through late Friday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
233 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-121945-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
233 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014 /133 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
CULBERSON COUNTY...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS...AND THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...AND WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO AREAS OF FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY FOR CULBERSON COUNTY...SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND
MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH SUSTAINED IN
GUADALUPE PASS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE STRONG
COLD FRONT. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCAL
EMERGENCY OFFICIALS MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
746 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

NMZ033-TXZ045-120130-
GAINES-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-
646 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM
AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL LEA AND SOUTHWESTERN GAINES COUNTIES UNTIL 730
PM MDT/830 PM CDT/...

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MONUMENT AT 646 PM
MDT/746 PM CDT/...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  THIS STORM MAY
IMPACT HOBBS.  SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3285 10313 3257 10302 3251 10335 3269 10342
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 250DEG 13KT 3264 10328