Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

502 
WGUS74 KMAF 031000
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
500 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014

TXC115-031215-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-140703T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DAWSON-
500 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 AM CDT FOR
CENTRAL DAWSON COUNTY...

AT 456 AM CDT...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED 
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE AN 
HOUR OR TWO FOR WATER TO RECEDE FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL.  

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WELCH...
PUNKIN CENTER...PRIDE...HANCOCK...GRANDVIEW AND ARVANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3297 10184 3264 10183 3262 10214 3296 10214

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1153 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist over southeast new
Mexico through much of the night, so have kept TSRA at both KCNM and
KHOB for the duration.  Storms may also develop further south at
KINK and KMAF later tonight to the north of a stationary frontal
boundary.  MVFR visibility, if not brief MVFR ceilings, may occur
with some of the thunderstorms.  Expect VFR conditions will prevail
areawide after sunrise and through this afternoon.  Thunderstorm
chances will be low, so will not mention at any TAF sites this
afternoon.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2014/

Cold front now appears just north of KMAF, as seen on radar,
w/spotty convection developing along and north of this feature. As
a result, all terminals save KFST/KPEQ will be candidates for
convection overnight, w/heavy rainfall expected. Latest buffer
soundings suggest a couple of hours of MVFR cigs may be possible
at KHOB Thu morning, but otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
next 24 hours. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by
late Thu morning, w/bases 3.5-5 kft agl. Convection is expected
again Thu afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2014/

Widespread rain that occurred over the TX S Plains this morning
has diminished, but has sent the cold front/outflow boundary south
across the Permian Basin this afternoon. Regional radar also shows
an MCV from overnight convection moving slowly east over SE NM.
Forecast models did a poor job with overnight convection, but the
12Z runs seem to be doing slightly better. Scattered storms have
fired along this boundary and expect this to continue. More storms
may also form in the vicinity of the MCV over SE NM as morning
clouds have now cleared and instability is increasing. Storm
movement is very slow due to weak steering flow so heavy rain will
be a good possibility with any of the storms. Going off what
happened yesterday, we may see a lull in activity across the area
later this evening except in the higher terrain where moist,
upslope flow will continue. By tonight, more showers and storms
may form along and north of the front which will likely still be
somewhere across the northern Permian Basin. Again, heavy rain
will be possible with the slow moving storms while weak shear will
keep the severe weather threat isolated.

The upper ridge begins to build back in Thursday and the front
washes out. Thursday will be pretty similar to today, but with a
bit less precip coverage. The main focus will again be over the
northeast Permian Basin. We should see one more day of below
average temperatures Thursday before the ridge builds in for the
holiday weekend. Your 4th of July looks to be seasonably hot with
dry skies. This continues into next week before the upper ridge
shows signs of breaking down. This may allow monsoonal moisture to
begin to affect the Guadalupe Mountains and surrounding areas so
have included isolated PoPs each afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-040900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
355 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 /255 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS, WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS OVER
THE PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, AND GUADALUPE AND
DAVIS MOUNTAINS.  A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND