Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

153 
WGUS74 KMAF 211941
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
241 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

TXC383-212100-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-140621T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
REAGAN-
241 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN REAGAN COUNTY...

AT 232 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT SHOWERS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE BIG LAKE VICINITY. 
RADAR ESTIMATES AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE 
VICINITY OF BIG LAKE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BIG LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STREAMS AND DRAINAGES AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...ISAAC
DRAW AND BIG JIM DRAW.

FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS... STREETS AND UNDERPASSES...LOW
WATER CROSSINGS... AND LOW LYING FARMLAND IS LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

FOR ROAD CONDITIONS IN TEXAS...PLEASE CALL THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION AT 1 800 452 9292...OR VISIT
HTTP://WWW.DOT.STATE.TX.US.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 10128 3108 10154 3127 10154 3127 10127
      3108 10127

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1133 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014

.AVIATION...

Area radars show MCV remnants east of KMAF, and slowly drifting
northward. This activity has been waning for the last several
hours, and sat trends/models suggest it will continue to do so.
Expect cigs to improve to VFR all terminals this afternoon. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus redevelopment KMAF/KHOB around sunrise, but
we'll keep it SCT for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is possible
SHRA/TSRA at MAF today and MVFR cigs affecting all terminals this
morning. Still tough to tell if and when low stratus will develop.
CNM has been at MVFR for several hours now but no other site is
reporting low cigs attm. Have stratus at all but PEQ for at least a
couple of hours this morning, if not longer. Will continue to
monitor trends and amend when needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail later this morning at which point low cigs
should scatter and lift. So far, radar trends haven't shown any
redevelopment over eastern portions of the region. Could see some
showers with a few thunderstorms during the day today at MAF and
went ahead and introduced SHRA for late morning through early
afternoon. This is the area of highest confidence at the moment.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Will begin the day with a weakness over the area in the upper fields
with 588 highs to the east and west.  A lingering shortwave slowly
drifting across the area may help to produce some storms today.  The
ridge looks to have somewhat of a hard time getting established
across the region as a couple of mid latitude troughs swing across
the central plains over the next week.

There has been a slight increase in overnight convection east of the
area and this may expand into the Eastern Permian Basin.  Have
highest pops in the east today... could see some locally heavy rain
as atmosphere very moist... 00Z MAF sounding had PW of 1.44 inches.
Today meso eta develops precip over the Lower Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin.  GFS also does develop precip in the same area but to
a lesser extent.  Sunday precip shifts west over the higher
elevations mainly during the afternoon. Forecast has highest pops
today due to the shortwave but low pops continue into Wednesday.

Yesterday was unusually cool due to cloud cover and some lingering
rain mainly south.  Guidance gives unseasonably cool temperatures
again today for the first day of summer... expect to see more sun
and slightly warmer 850mb temps today so have gone a little over
guidance but still widespread highs in the 80s.  On Sunday 850mb
temps will be much warmer and expect returns of highs in the 90s
with 100s possible for the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.  Models
want to warm temps in the extended to around 100 for much of the
area but sub tropical ridge remains centered over Mexico and does
not look to sit on top of the region.  Have stayed more toward
the warmer MEX guidance... ECE guidance cooler and closer to
normal temps but expect it will be warm.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
418 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-220930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
418 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014 /318 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...
MAINLY OVER THE BIG BEND AREA...LOWER TRANS PECOS...STOCKTON
PLATEAU...AND PERMIAN BASIN. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN AND AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND