Flash Flood Warning 120, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

533 
WGUS74 KMAF 222045
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TXC109-389-230100-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0120.000000T0000Z-140923T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
REEVES-CULBERSON-
345 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT/700 PM
MDT/ FOR NORTHERN CULBERSON AND NORTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTIES...

AT 340 PM CDT...MOST OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED
OUT OF NORTHERN CULBERSON AND NORTHERN REEVES COUNTY. HOWEVER...
RUNOFF WILL LIKELY KEEP WATER OVER SOME ROADWAYS...PARTICULARLY 
SECONDARY ROADS. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK...PINE SPRINGS AND ORLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

FOR ROAD CONDITIONS IN TEXAS...PLEASE CALL THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION AT 1 800 452 9292...OR VISIT
HTTP://WWW.DOT.STATE.TX.US.

&&

LAT...LON 3200 10492 3199 10404 3175 10383 3159 10357
      3136 10349 3138 10491

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Rain with an isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the area
today with the best chances being for CNM.  Low ceilings will
gradually lift across most terminals this afternoon but will likely
come back in after sunset.  Visibilities will likely be reduced in
areas of rain/drizzle.  Ceilings and visibilities will gradually
improve late Tuesday morning.  Winds will be out of the southeast
this afternoon with some possible gusts.  Winds will weaken and
gradually become southerly after sunset.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
It has long been known that the greatest flood events in our CWA
are tropical weather related and this has proved no exception.
There have been some incredible floods in the past but this may be
the first time the three major rivers of our CWA (Pecos, Rio
Grande, Colorado) have all had flooding issues at the same time.
That requires not only a great deal of rainfall, but it must be
spread over a large area. The worst flooding is currently occurring
along the Pecos River from Carlsbad in southeast New Mexico to the
city of Pecos. Recent heavy rains have saturated soils across the
area and continued rainfall, even though not as heavy as the past
couple of days, is adding to runoff this morning. Unfortunately it
is exactly this area that models show have the best chance for
additional rainfall today so conditions may be slow to improve.
Therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch for the Trans Pecos
and southeast New Mexico through today and will cancel it for the
Permian Basin where rainfall should be much less today and lighter
in intensity. Cannot rule out some isolated moderate or even heavy
showers outside the watch but the threat appears to low to justify
continuing it in the Permian Basin. Easterly low level upslope
flow will favor areas west of the Pecos and especially the
Guadalupe Mountains in western Eddy County. It won't take heavy
rain but a persistent moderate rain in this area would drain into
the creeks and arroyos that feed into the Pecos.

Very high PWATs in excess of 1.8" will be dropping and lower theta-E
values will advect in from the east the next several days
increasing stability and allowing for much less convective
development. An upper level ridge over the Rockies will greatly
amplify by mid week capturing the southern portion of a trough
over the Midwest and retrograding it back towards north Texas.
This trough will bring lower heights but west Texas and eastern
New Mexico will still be on the dry side of this feature so no
widespread rainfall is expected. Daytime heating could allow for
isolated afternoon convection but nothing like we have seen
recently. The lower heights will only translate to near or
slightly below normal high temperatures. No cold fronts are
expected the next seven days though a deep low moving into the
Pacific northwest could bring one beyond this forecast time frame.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans
Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

&&

99

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
439 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-230945-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
439 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014 /339 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY AGAIN
TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE TRANS PECOS...
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE... DAVIS...AND APACHE
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...
VAN HORN AND THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...REEVES COUNTY AND THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS. ABUNDANT RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THESE
AREAS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO RAISE CONCERNS FOR MORE FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL..ESPECIALLY OVER
THE TRANS PECOS.

ELEVATED FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TODAY AND TONIGHT
DUE TO RELEASES FROM RESERVOIRS IN MEXICO AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON BOTH
SIDES OF THE RIVER. TRIBUTARIES AND ARROYOS TO THE PECOS RIVER...SUCH
AS THE RIO PENASCO...FOUR MILE DRAW...SOUTH SEVEN RIVERS...ROCKY
ARROYO...DARK CANYON...BLACK RIVER...DELAWARE RIVER...AND WALNUT
CANYON HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING AS FLOOD WAVES MOVE DOWN CANYONS.
FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN CARLSBAD AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH FLOOD WAVES
MOVING DOWN CANYONS AND THE PECOS RIVER. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT
FALLS IN THOSE AREAS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES...IF NOT FLOODING.
ALSO LINGERING FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IN BORDEN AND SCURRY
COUNTIES IS STILL A CONCERN. FINALLY FLOODING ALONG THE PECOS RIVER
FROM RED BLUFF TO PECOS/BARSTOW IS STILL ONGOING AS IS MINOR
FLOODING ON THE COLORADO RIVER AT COLORADO CITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE RIO GRANDE...PECOS RIVER...AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES AND
ARROYOS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THE PECOS RIVER FROM RED BLUFF TO PECOS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CREST UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN
FLASH FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND