Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER TODAY. MORE THAN
TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL IN PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS. RAIN
WILL BUILD SOUTH WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT.

AS THE FRONT HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL THIRD OF ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING...THERE COULD BE A FEW SEVERE STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER WAS ONGOING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH POSTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE OUACHITA
MOUNTAINS OF THE WEST.

RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AMOUNTS COULD BE HEAVY...WITH GENERAL HALF
INCH TO INCH AND A HALF TOTALS IN THE FORECAST. LOCAL TOTALS COULD
EXCEED TWO INCHES.

HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LINGERING IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT...WITH
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...WIDESPREAD HIGH WATER PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY...WITH
MOST OF THE WATER GOING INTO THE SOIL FOLLOWING A DRY SEPTEMBER.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRAG A NEW COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PICKING UP AGAIN.

THERE WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH THE NEW SYSTEM...AND A QUICK
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE OF AN
ISSUE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING/INSTABILITY.
AREAS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE FAVORED IF SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOP...OR WHERE THE MOST HEATING TAKES PLACE BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD AND THE TRAILING TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF ARKANSAS.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER ARKANSAS TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING ARKANSAS TUESDAY
MORNING...AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  60  53  70 /  80  80  50  40
CAMDEN AR         66  73  60  76 /  70  80  50  40
HARRISON AR       50  58  50  69 /  70  70  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  68  56  74 /  90  80  50  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  66  56  74 /  90  80  50  40
MONTICELLO AR     66  75  61  80 /  60  80  50  40
MOUNT IDA AR      62  68  56  74 /  90  80  40  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  50  58  51  69 /  60  70  40  30
NEWPORT AR        56  62  54  72 /  90  80  60  40
PINE BLUFF AR     64  71  59  76 /  70  80  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  63  54  72 /  90  80  40  30
SEARCY AR         59  64  55  72 /  90  80  60  40
STUTTGART AR      62  69  57  75 /  70  80  60  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
630 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ALONG A FRONT THAT IS
CREEPING TO THE SOUTH AND ONCE RAIN DOES BEGIN...IT WILL BE VERY
SLOW TO END.

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30 AND INTERSTATE 40. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN NOT BE
DISCOUNTED.

THERE IS A CHANCE SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE GUSTY WINDS AND
MAYBE SOME LARGE HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS. RAIN WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED AND TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BECAUSE OF A DRY SEPTEMBER IN MOST AREAS...AND A MODERATE
DROUGHT IN PARTS OF THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL SOAK INTO THE GROUND. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT COULD STILL OCCUR IN SOME SPOTS.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRAG A
NEW COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED. A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN WILL FALL IN A SHORT TIME...AND FLASH FLOODING COULD
BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
BE MINIMAL...AND WILL HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM BECOMING OVERLY
UNSTABLE.

IF THERE IS A FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...IT
IS AREAS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS WHERE THE MOST
HEATING WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN CONCERN...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER RAINFALL AND
FLOODING REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

58/46/56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
654 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

ARZ039-042>044-110040-
GARLAND AR-PERRY AR-PULASKI AR-SALINE AR-
654 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SALINE...WESTERN
PULASKI...SOUTHERN PERRY AND NORTHERN GARLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

AT 653 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF JESSIEVILLE...OR 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WILLIAMS JUNCTION...  LONG MTN...           LAKE WINONA...
  LAKE SYLVIA...        LAKE NORRELL...       JESSIEVILLE...
  WYE MTN...            WYE...                THORNBURG...
  REFORM...             PARON...              HOLLIS...
  DEBERRIE...           CONGO...              BLAND...
  AVILLA...             ANTIOCH...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3498 9261 3464 9258 3471 9319 3494 9318
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 267DEG 32KT 3479 9306

65

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
721 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

ARZ031>033-039-043>045-110105-
CONWAY AR-FAULKNER AR-LONOKE AR-PERRY AR-PULASKI AR-SALINE AR-WHITE
AR-
721 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WHITE...NORTHERN
SALINE...NORTHERN PULASKI...NORTHEASTERN PERRY...NORTHWESTERN
LONOKE...FAULKNER AND SOUTHEASTERN CONWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

AT 719 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF
HILL CREEK TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOAD SUCK TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LITTLE ITALY...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAUMELLE...           LITTLE ROCK AFB...    LAKE MAUMELLE...
  JACKSONVILLE...       CONWAY...             WOOSTER...
  VILONIA...            TOAD SUCK...          SPRINGHILL...
  ROLAND...             PINNACLE MTN...       PICKLES GAP...
  OLMSTEAD...           MT VERNON...          MORGAN...
  MENIFEE...            MAYFLOWER...          MARCHE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 110 AND 145.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3528 9209 3506 9200 3487 9206 3482 9273
      3501 9270 3520 9270
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 265DEG 34KT 3516 9260 3502 9258
          3492 9262

65