Severe Thunderstorm Warning 377, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER TODAY. MORE THAN
TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL IN PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS. RAIN
WILL BUILD SOUTH WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT.

AS THE FRONT HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL THIRD OF ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING...THERE COULD BE A FEW SEVERE STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER WAS ONGOING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH POSTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE OUACHITA
MOUNTAINS OF THE WEST.

RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AMOUNTS COULD BE HEAVY...WITH GENERAL HALF
INCH TO INCH AND A HALF TOTALS IN THE FORECAST. LOCAL TOTALS COULD
EXCEED TWO INCHES.

HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LINGERING IN THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT...WITH
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...WIDESPREAD HIGH WATER PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY...WITH
MOST OF THE WATER GOING INTO THE SOIL FOLLOWING A DRY SEPTEMBER.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRAG A NEW COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PICKING UP AGAIN.

THERE WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH THE NEW SYSTEM...AND A QUICK
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE OF AN
ISSUE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING/INSTABILITY.
AREAS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE FAVORED IF SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOP...OR WHERE THE MOST HEATING TAKES PLACE BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD AND THE TRAILING TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF ARKANSAS.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER ARKANSAS TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING ARKANSAS TUESDAY
MORNING...AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  60  53  70 /  80  80  50  40
CAMDEN AR         66  73  60  76 /  70  80  50  40
HARRISON AR       50  58  50  69 /  70  70  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  68  56  74 /  90  80  50  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  66  56  74 /  90  80  50  40
MONTICELLO AR     66  75  61  80 /  60  80  50  40
MOUNT IDA AR      62  68  56  74 /  90  80  40  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  50  58  51  69 /  60  70  40  30
NEWPORT AR        56  62  54  72 /  90  80  60  40
PINE BLUFF AR     64  71  59  76 /  70  80  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  63  54  72 /  90  80  40  30
SEARCY AR         59  64  55  72 /  90  80  60  40
STUTTGART AR      62  69  57  75 /  70  80  60  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...51

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