Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
513 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED FOR NEW TORNADO WATCH 53. THIS IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS....TAKING ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT DOES. FEATURE
CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. AS TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF
AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE BUT STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES STATES. MODELS ALL HAVE THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE GULF COAST BY THAT TIME
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH WILL BRING A
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS TO THE REGION THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY
WHEN THE HIGH BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE EAST.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH A EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS OVERRUNNING PATTERN COMMENCES.
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARY AS MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. DRY SLOTTING WILL LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS/TRENDS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

MID TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE STATE FOR
MONDAY...AND ACROSS THE EAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTER THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BRINGS SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     52  64  39  63 /  80   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         55  71  43  68 /  80  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       45  59  34  62 /  80   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    51  68  41  66 /  80   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  68  42  66 /  80  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     58  72  45  67 /  80  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      50  67  40  66 /  80   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  60  35  62 /  80   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        53  65  40  63 /  80   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     56  70  44  67 /  80  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   49  63  39  64 /  80   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         53  66  41  64 /  80  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      55  69  43  65 /  80  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-040845-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
400 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT THIS TIME. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA...WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO AND
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE STATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT AND SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THIS LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS EXPECTED TO GET INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND REACH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE SEVERAL
HOURS LATER. THE FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS FAR AS RAINFALL...HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF TOTALS ARE IN THE
FORECAST. PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST COULD GET LESS...WITH POTENTIALLY
MORE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SEEN AS WELL
TODAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE STATE AS
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL BE
PULLED IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING A FEW
COLD MORNINGS TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE DURING THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

226/56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
800 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             1 S MARSHALL            35.90N 92.64W
04/03/2014  E1.00 INCH       SEARCY             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN MARSHALL.

&&

CDALTON