Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY NOTED THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY. 12-17KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS EXPECTED.
PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE ATTM MAY IMPROVE TO VFR BRIEFLY
AROUND 18Z. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BETWEEN KBPK/KHRO AND
KLIT ATTM AND ALSO A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF KHOT MOVING ENE. EXPECT MORE
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL LIKELY. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WEST
TO EAST AROUND 06Z WITH WS TO NW BETWEEN 06-12Z AT AREA TERMINALS
WITH FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE REMAIN CHANCES OF CONVECTION...
WITH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAIN. ALSO WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

CURRENTLY A SOUTH WIND FLOW HAS INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS AND KEEP
TEMPS MILD THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S...WITH THE 00Z
KLZK SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.36 INCHES. THE WIND
PROFILE WAS VEERING WITH SURFACE WINDS SE TO S...WHILE A LOW LEVEL
JET FROM THE SW AT AROUND 40 KNOTS. A WEAKER CAP WAS STILL PRESENT
AROUND 7-8K FEET. THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTH OVER
SOUTHERN MO...AND EXTENDED BACK TO THE WEST TO SE KS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER TEXAS. ALOFT...A SW WIND FLOW HAD
SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN IT OVER KS TO MO...WHERE CONVECTION WAS
ONGOING...WHILE OVER AR...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. STORMS WILL MOVE NE WITH THE STEERING FLOW.
THE CONVECTION OVER AR WAS BEING INITIATED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND
SOME UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE CONVECTION AND RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE STATE. SPC DOES HAVE MUCH OF AR IN A
MODERATE RISK...DUE TO FACTORS COMING TOGETHER OVER THE AREA TO
PRODUCE A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS MORNING THE FORECAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THEN UP THIS TO
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE AFTERNOON...EVENING...AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE...LI
VALUES REACH -5 TO -8...CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2200 J/KG...AND A
VEERING WIND PROFILE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE THE SEVERE STORM
THREAT. ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG IT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
REACH SEVERE POTENTIAL ALSO. DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERE DOES HAVE A WEAK CAP AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS KEEP THIS THROUGH MID DAY...BUT THEN THIS IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND END AS THE ATMOSPHERIC WINDS MOVE INTO AR. ELEVATED
SURFACE WINDS WILL PROMPT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

THE UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY THROUGH AR
TONIGHT AND THE MAIN CONVECTION AREA WILL PUSH EAST EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT...AND BE MAINLY OUT OF AR BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OUT OF AR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO
AR. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE SEEN SATURDAY...BUT THEN THE
ACTIVE UPPER SOUTHERN STREAM HAS AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS BACK IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...THEN BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES OR A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KICK OFF THE LONG TERM
AS EACH DISPLAYS A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE STATE MONDAY
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
TRAVELING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

THE TROUGH OVERHEAD LOOKS TO REMAIN AND PROVIDE A FEW DISTURBANCES
TO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER EFFECT FROM
THE TROUGH BEING OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 50S TO 60S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS PARTICULARLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
READINGS AT NIGHT COULD FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
40S NOTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     79  52  63  40 /  70  80  10   0
CAMDEN AR         79  55  70  44 /  60  80  10   0
HARRISON AR       77  45  58  35 /  80  70  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  51  67  42 /  70  80  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  53  67  43 /  70  80  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     80  58  71  46 /  60  80  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  50  66  41 /  70  70  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  79  48  59  36 /  80  80  10   0
NEWPORT AR        78  53  64  41 /  70  80  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     79  56  69  45 /  60  80  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   78  49  62  40 /  70  70  10   0
SEARCY AR         78  53  65  42 /  70  80  10   0
STUTTGART AR      78  55  68  44 /  60  80  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...226

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
857 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

ARZ037-031440-
SCOTT AR-
857 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY UNTIL
945 AM CDT...

AT 855 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 18 MILES WEST OF MOUNTAIN
FORK...OR 28 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARTFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WALDRON...            OLIVER...             MORGAN SPRINGS...
  MANSFIELD...          LAKE HINKLE...        BEAUCHAMP...
  WINFIELD...           HON...                ELM PARK...
  CAUTHRON...           BLACK FORK...         BATES...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3493 9445 3496 9441 3496 9429 3497 9424
      3505 9423 3507 9425 3511 9414 3506 9414
      3505 9409 3491 9400 3473 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 1357Z 242DEG 37KT 3474 9470

58