Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
127 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME...AND
IS MOVING RATHER SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
APPROACHING FROM THE SW AND HELPING TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION THAT IS
HEADED NEWD ACROSS THE STATE RIGHT NOW.

AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO OR THREE ROWS OF
COUNTIES. SFC BASED DYNAMICS ARE NOT ALL THAT SPECTACULAR BUT THERE
IS SUFFICIENT CAPE AND INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A CONCERN...PRIMARILY
FOR HAIL...AND SECONDARILY FOR STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY WHICH HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS WILL PRIMARILY BE ON THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...HAIL
COULD ALSO OCCUR FURTHER TO THE NORTH...INCLUDING AREAS NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE START TO GET A FEW
REPORTS OF HAIL FROM THE EXISTING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT LATER TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BRING FAIRLY PLEASANT
WEATHER...AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD START TO SET IN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM....MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A POTENT FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE STATE DURING THE WED.- THU. TIME FRAME. TOO
EARLY TO ADDRESS SPECIFIC SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS...HOWEVER THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A COOL
SPELL EXPECTED LATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     47  63  39  68 /  80   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         53  69  39  72 /  90   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       40  60  40  69 /  50   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  67  39  70 /  60   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  47  66  41  69 /  70   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     55  68  43  71 / 100  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      44  68  35  74 /  60   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  63  39  71 /  70   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        47  62  38  68 /  90  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     50  66  41  68 /  90  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   44  68  36  72 /  50   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         45  67  37  67 /  80   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      50  65  41  67 /  90  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...55

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1145 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-291000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1145 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON
TO THE EVENING HOURS...ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE THREATS
WITH THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL...AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...EXISTS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MENA...TO MONTICELLO.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE THROUGH THE STATE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP QUICKLY...AND ORGANIZE INTO A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. FORECAST PROFILES OF WIND...TEMPERATURE...AND MOISTURE ARE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH A MORE ROBUST
STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE STATE BY MID WEEK.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES ARKANSAS. THIS COULD
BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND TIMING WILL
PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN WHAT TYPE OF IMPACTS ARKANSAS MAY EXPERIENCE.
IF THE STORM SYSTEM SPEEDS UP OR SLOWS DOWN...THEN THE TIMING OF
IMPACTS MAY CHANGE DRAMATICALLY AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 9 PM.
&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

55/226

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