Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
937 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

.UPDATE...

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LOUISANA WHERE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE PRECIP DEVELOP NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH
DECREAING CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND HAVE TRENDED
POPS TO THIS WAY. RADAR HAS ALSO SHOWN THIS TREND. ALL UPDATES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS NEARLY CONSTANT DURING THIS
PERIOD. IN THE NEAR TERM...AN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT
EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOCATION IS JUST NORTH OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED...AND SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES ARE OVER 2000 J/KG. MCV APPROACHING THIS AREA
WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

UNTIL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...NOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...MOVES EAST OF THE CENTRAL U.S...EXPECT SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE
STATE. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS A THREAT THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER MEXICO TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY BUT EXPANDS
NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  79  66  78 /  80  70  80  70
CAMDEN AR         68  84  68  84 /  90  70  70  60
HARRISON AR       62  76  62  74 /  60  80  80  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  81  65  81 /  90  80  80  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  83  67  82 /  90  80  80  70
MONTICELLO AR     70  87  69  84 /  80  70  70  70
MOUNT IDA AR      66  79  64  79 /  80  80  80  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  76  64  76 /  50  80  80  70
NEWPORT AR        66  81  67  80 /  90  70  80  80
PINE BLUFF AR     68  85  68  83 /  90  80  70  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  79  64  78 /  70  80  80  60
SEARCY AR         66  81  67  80 /  90  80  90  70
STUTTGART AR      68  84  68  83 /  90  80  80  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-
VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

224

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
212 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091015-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
212 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED DUE TO SOLAR HEATING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

ALSO...STORM THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT...WILL
BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. RAINFALL MAY BECOME EXCESSIVE WITH
SOME STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EACH DAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST...MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE OF SOME CONCERN.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SEVERE STORMS
COULD OCCUR AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN A
CONCERN ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
923 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND GST     BENTON                  34.57N 92.58W
06/08/2014  E52 MPH          SALINE             AR   STORM CHASER

&&

226

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
928 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE BENTON             34.61N 92.53W
06/08/2014  M63.00 MPH       SALINE             AR   PUBLIC

&&

226

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