Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
257 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES MOST CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF A
MCV...CENTERED NEAR CONWAY ARKANSAS...MOVING TO THE EAST.  THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A NUMBER OF DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23Z.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ADDTIIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.  NEXT
ROUND SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RELY HEAVILY
ON MESOSCALE CONSIDERATIONS...FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE BEST
UNDERSTANDNG OF THESE FORECAST CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY THE STATE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  85  68  83 /  40  50  50  60
CAMDEN AR         70  91  70  88 /  20  30  40  40
HARRISON AR       66  82  65  78 /  50  70  60  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  88  69  85 /  30  40  50  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  89  71  85 /  30  40  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     71  92  71  89 /  30  30  40  50
MOUNT IDA AR      69  87  69  84 /  30  40  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  67  82  66  80 /  50  70  60  70
NEWPORT AR        69  87  69  85 /  50  50  50  60
PINE BLUFF AR     71  90  71  88 /  30  30  50  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  87  69  82 /  40  50  60  70
SEARCY AR         69  87  70  84 /  40  50  50  60
STUTTGART AR      71  89  71  87 /  40  40  50  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

&&

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...51