River Flood Warning 9, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
207 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN WILL DEVELOP BEHIND IT...BUT
AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS THAT PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. THUS...LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER IS
EXPECTED. ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER WITH SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY...
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY. TUESDAY MAY EVEN
BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE SOUTH
POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT...LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THEN...AS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...AND SUBSIDENCE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO AR AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...RESULTING IN DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. AS THIS HAPPENS...MOISTURE WILL
LIFT NW OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON WED...WITH POPS INCREASING
ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE STATE. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NORTH AND NE OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTIES ALSO REMAIN
REGARDING HOW COLD TEMPS WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THERE
COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW EARLY ON WED WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD BE
SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WINDOW WILL
SHRINK AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE EAST...AS WELL AS WITH
TEMPS WARMING BACK UP BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...AND CHANGES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN. FOR NOW THOUGH...THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIP REMAINS LOW FOR AR.

BY THU...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN....WITH TEMPS REMAINING JUST
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER AR ON FRI...BUT
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP ONLY SILENT POPS GOING FOR
NOW. THE FORECAST WILL END ON A DRY NOTE...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  56  42  70 /  60  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         45  59  46  71 /  60  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       31  57  41  70 /  60  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    43  58  44  70 /  60  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  43  58  44  72 /  60  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     45  62  48  71 /  50  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      39  57  39  70 /  50  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  57  41  72 /  60  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        36  56  44  70 /  60  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     44  57  45  70 /  60  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   39  61  38  70 /  50  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         40  56  40  68 /  60  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      42  56  45  70 /  60  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1153 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1153 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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