Alert archive / Arkansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2014

Flash Flood Warning 59, NWS Little Rock, AR

September 17, 2014Boone County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this flash flood warning at Sep 17, 2014, 3:16 PM CDT for Boone County, Arkansas. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Sep 17, 2014, 3:16 PM CDT (20:16 UTC)
Expired: Sep 17, 2014, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: NWS Little Rock, AR
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Boone County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1260 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -75 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 580 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 220 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 229 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 17, 1:49 PM CDT, 1 hour 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 17, 1:49 PM CDT, 1 hour 27 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
149 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE
AS THE STRONGEST CELLS ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THIS COMPLEX DROPS SOUTH
INTO AR. SEVERAL OF THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HIGH-RES HRRR HAVE DONE A
REASONABLE JOB ON THESE FEATURES...AND SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DROPPING
GENERALLY SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO GENERALLY FOLLOW THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS
THE WRN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE WHERE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3K J/KG AT THIS HR. AS A RESULT...DO
HAVE HIGHEST POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OVER THE NRN AND NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THEN DROPPING SOUTH TO SW OVER TIME LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SOLUTIONS EVEN KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING
INTO THE SWRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH POPS. HOWEVER...DO DROP POPS
OVER TIME AS UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AN INTENSITY INCREASES BY
LATE THIS EVENING REGARDING THIS ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

BEYOND THIS EVENING...THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WHAT MAY BE THE
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE STATE BECOMES A BIT
UNCERTAIN. EARLIER SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THE NEXT WAVE
MOVING OVER LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE THE
CASE WITH THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AND ITS EXPECTED PATH. THE NEXT WAVE
MAY BE DELAYED A BIT LONGER...BUT MAY ALSO NOT BE AS INTENSE AS
EARLIER EXPECTED. WITH THAT SAID...CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY LOCATION
OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THU...BUT HAVE DECREASED POPS SOME AS A
RESULT OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN/WHERE THE NEXT WAVE MAY MOVE.

BY FRI INTO EARLY SAT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION...DECREASING POPS AND INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS THE STATE. BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...HAVE INCREASING POPS WITH THE APPROACH
OF AN UPPER LOW OR THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST/NW.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH...LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM
LESS AMBITIOUS ABOUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE STATE.

AS RAIN CHANCES DISSIPATE BY MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
STATE. BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF SEPTEMBER IN ARKANSAS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AND A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  80  62  83 /  30  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         71  88  68  89 /  40  40  20  10
HARRISON AR       63  78  61  80 /  40  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  86  67  85 /  50  30  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  85  66  86 /  50  30  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  88  67  88 /  30  30  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      67  85  65  84 /  40  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  78  60  81 /  30  30  10  10
NEWPORT AR        64  80  61  83 /  30  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     70  87  66  87 /  40  30  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  85  65  84 /  40  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         66  82  63  83 /  40  30  10  10
STUTTGART AR      68  84  65  85 /  40  30  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...226

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 17, 7:41 AM CDT, 7 hours 35 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
741 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181245-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
741 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG
WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO PARTS
OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

AFTER DRY AND WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

DATA IS SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE...FROM THE PACIFIC
OCEAN...MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY AND INTERACTING
WITH THE FRONT. THIS WOULD ADD MOISTURE TO THE ENVIRONMENT...AND
COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 17, 1:57 PM CDT, 1 hour 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
157 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0139 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GAMALIEL                36.45N 92.23W
09/17/2014                   BAXTER             AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ONTO A COUNTY ROAD...AND A NUMBER
            OF LARGE LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

28

Local storm report, Sep 17, 2:03 PM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
203 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 PM     HAIL             1 S MOUNTAIN HOME       36.32N 92.38W
09/17/2014  E0.50 INCH       BAXTER             AR   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN THE SOUTH PART OF
            MOUNTAIN HOME.

&&

226

Special weather statement, Sep 17, 2:31 PM CDT, 45 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
231 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ARZ003-004-172000-
BOONE AR-MARION AR-
231 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOONE AND EXTREME WESTERN MARION
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 229 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OMAHA...OR 13 MILES
NORTHEAST OF GREEN FOREST...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HARRISON...           WININGTON...          WILLIS...
  SELF...               ROBERSON HOLLOW...    RED BANK...
  OMAHA...              MYRTLE...             LEAD HILL...
  DIAMOND CITY...       CAPPS...              BERGMAN...
  SOUTH LEAD HILL...    RIDGEWAY...           BURLINGTON...
  BATAVIA...            ALPENA...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3631 9288 3614 9330 3650 9330 3650 9329
      3651 9289
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 299DEG 24KT 3641 9320

226

Special weather statement, Sep 17, 2:42 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
242 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ARZ007-015-016-172005-
INDEPENDENCE AR-IZARD AR-SHARP AR-
242 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SHARP...SOUTHEASTERN
IZARD AND NORTHERN INDEPENDENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 239 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE NAVAJO TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SIDNEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SIDNEY...             MT PLEASANT...        CAVE CITY...
  SITKA...              SANDTOWN...           POUGHKEEPSIE...
  NELSONVILLE...        MAXVILLE...           LAFFERTY...
  GRANGE...             EVENING SHADE...      CURIA...
  CHARLOTTE...          CENTER...             AETNA...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3622 9134 3590 9135 3589 9132 3588 9132
      3580 9141 3591 9188 3624 9146
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 284DEG 32KT 3615 9142 3594 9166

226

Local storm report, Sep 17, 3:07 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
307 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     HAIL             HARRISON                36.24N 93.12W
09/17/2014  E1.75 INCH       BOONE              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL STARTED OUT AS PENNY SIZE...INCREASED TO NICKEL
            SIZE...AND NOW GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL IS FALLING.

&&

57

Local storm report, Sep 17, 3:11 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
311 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             HARRISON                36.24N 93.12W
09/17/2014  E1.00 INCH       BOONE              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS FALLING AT HARRISON POLICE
            DEPARTMENT.

&&

57

The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 17, 10:23 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Marion	32 min
Sep 17, 1:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Baxter, Fulton, Izard, Marion	42 min
Sep 17, 1:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Baxter, Fulton, Izard, Sharp	48 min
Sep 17, 2:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Boone	29 min
Sep 17, 2:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Sharp	23 min
Sep 17, 2:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Boone	27 min
Sep 17, 3:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Boone, Marion, Newton, Searcy	35 min
Sep 17, 3:22 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Newton, Searcy	23 min
Sep 17, 3:39 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Newton, Searcy	21 min
Sep 17, 3:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Newton, Pope, Searcy, Van Buren	47 min
Sep 17, 3:52 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Marion, Newton, Searcy	2 hr
Sep 17, 4:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Searcy, Stone, Van Buren	33 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2014 Every flash flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.