Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
241 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION...APPROACHING FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL
ENCOUNTER AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
OF OVER 3000 J/KG INDICATED. HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS WILL BE THE THREATS WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA WILL AMPLIFY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. A SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH TROFFING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL PROMOTE THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT LATE.
THIS FEATURE WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL
BRING DRIER...MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FEW CHGS MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST AS MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TODAY WITH TRENDS. AN UPR RDG WL RMN SITUATED OVR THE WRN STATES...
AND A TROF OVR THE ERN PART OF THE NATION. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW
OVR THE MID SOUTH WL BRING A CDFNT THRU THE AREA EARLY IN THE PD.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDS WL BE NOTED BEHIND THE FNT...ALONG WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO BLW NORMAL LVLS.

BY LATER IN THE PD...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR RDG WL BEGIN TO SLOLY
BLD BACK EWD WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A NEW STORM SYS WL ALSO APCH THE FA FM THE PLAINS
STATES HEADING INTO FRI AND SAT...WITH INCRSG CLOUDS AND SMALL CHCS
OF SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  91  74  90 /  40  40  30  40
CAMDEN AR         72  95  75  94 /  40  40  20  40
HARRISON AR       68  88  70  86 /  30  60  50  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  92  75  93 /  40  30  30  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  92  75  93 /  40  30  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     73  94  75  93 /  40  30  20  40
MOUNT IDA AR      70  92  74  93 /  30  30  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  90  71  89 /  30  60  50  40
NEWPORT AR        71  91  74  91 /  40  30  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     72  93  75  92 /  40  30  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  92  75  93 /  40  40  40  40
SEARCY AR         72  91  74  92 /  40  30  30  40
STUTTGART AR      72  91  74  91 /  40  20  20  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FRONT WAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SURROUNDING THE
FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS LOADED WITH MOISTURE. THIS WILL MAKE STORMS
MORE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIT AND MISS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
SPOTTY SEVERE WEATHER.

IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100
TO 105 DEGREES IN ALL BUT THE OZARKS MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTHWEST.

ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A STRONGER FRONT WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA
FROM MISSOURI. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

GIVEN ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>